Chris F. Masse .COM

OPINION — The best takes on prediction markets — 2007-09-22

Sat, 22 Sep 2007 21:28:56 GMT

The Bet2Give real-money betting exchange could facilitate the sponsoring of socially valuable prediction markets by foundations and think tanks. - by Chris Masse - 2007-09-21

Outputs Require Inputs - by Robin Hanson - 2007-09-17

E-Mail Interview with Michael Giberson - 2007-09-16

THE FREAKONOMICS BLOG AND THE JATROPHA PREDICTION MARKET AT POPSCI PPX NOW FORM AN X GROUP. - by Chris Masse - 2007-09-05

InTrade expired the Larry Craig prediction market too early. - by Chris Masse - 2007-09-05

Prediction markets is a meta forecasting tool. - by Chris Masse - 2007-09-01

Price Biases in a Prediction Market: NFL Contracts on Tradesports - by Rick Borghesi - 2007-08-19

Interpreting probabilistic predictions from betting exchanges - by Emile Servan-Schreiber - 2007-08-14

Blow the Whistle on Betting Scandals - [Op-Ed in the New York Times on sports betting and sports corruption] - by Justin Wolfers - 2007-07-27

Midas Oracle is the central force of the field of prediction markets. - [on the Harry Potter prediction market] - by Chris Masse - 2007-07-25

THE FATE OF HARRY POTTER IN J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH BOOK, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: prediction market vs. bookmaker - by Chris Masse - 2007-07-23

The contract of the Harry Potter event derivative at NewsFutures may be flawed. - by Chris Masse - 2007-07-13

The Harry Potter litmus test - by Chris Masse - 2007-07-13

J.K. Rowling’s The Deathly Hallows = Harry Potter MUST Die! + Harry Potter Must NOT Die! - by Chris Masse - 2007-07-12

What should be Done about Manipulation of Prediction Markets? - by Michael Giberson - 2007-07-10

Is Manipulation Good for a Prediction Market? Accuracy Isn’t Everything. - by Eric Zitzewitz - 2007-07-09

Max Keiser’s thoughts on the current version of the Hollywood Stock Exchange - by Max Keiser - 2007-07-09

Deep-Pocketed Manipulators are a Prediction Market’s Friend. - by Michael Giberson - 2007-07-08

Chris Masse’s totaly misinformed view on Media Predict - by Chris Masse - 2007-06-28

Notes from the San Diego Prediction Markets Conference - by Jed Christiansen - 2007-06-26

Betcha.com’s Hack of Anti-Internet Gaming Laws - by Tom Bell - 2007-06-18

The STOCKS metaphor is not the right one for the PREDICTION MARKETS. - by "Meme Sink" - 2007-06-15

Pop Sci outputs a flawed and biased explainer on prediction markets. - by Chris Masse - 2007-06-15

Predicting media success - by David Pennock - 2007-06-15

Harry Potter will NOT die? Don’t Bet on It. - by Michael Giberson - 2007-06-09

BetFair is ethical and responsible, whereas InTrade-TradeSports is not. - by Chris Masse - 2007-06-09

How to propose a new prediction market - by Chris Masse - 2007-06-04

An Employee Stock Option Prediction Market - by Eric Zitzewitz - 2007-06-01

Win Justin’s Money? (re: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.) - by Koleman Strumpf - 2007-05-31

Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux. - by Justin Wolfers - 2007-05-31

Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? - by Koleman Strumpf - 2007-05-31

Manipulation can affect prices. - by Eric Zitzewitz - 2007-05-30

Prediction Markets for Businesses = a Strategic Forecasting Tool - by Chris Masse - 2007-05-28

Is the PMs-4-All revolution built on moving sand? - by Chris Masse - 2007-05-28

ROBIN HANSON: Prediction markets are not about the wisdom of crowds… - 2007-05-24

Policy Event Derivatives - by Jason Ruspini - 2007-05-23

Proving business value - by Jed Christiansen - 2007-05-22

Some studies have suggested that around two and four percent of all betting undertaken is performed by insiders, but any definitive estimate is hindered by the fact that most insiders, as is the case in financial markets, probably go undetected. - by Niall O'Connor - 2007-05-19

Squawk on Prediction Markets - [legality of prediction markets in the U.S.] - by Tom Bell - 2007-05-16

Robert Hahn and Paul Tetlock’s Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal - 2007-05-11

Safe Harbor Letter too Timid - by Chris Hibbert - 2007-05-10

Experimenting with different market types - by Jed Christiansen - 2007-05-10

Educating Traders, including lessons from BetFair - by Jed Christiansen - 2007-05-09

Secrets of an Inkling Top Trader: Spotting Riskless Arbitrage Opportunities - by Michael Giberson - 2007-05-09

Political futures, exam-week edition - by Alex forshaw - 2007-05-09

Educating Traders, including lessons from BetFair - by Jed Christiansen -

Chris Masse’s comment on the Freakonomics blog post about the legality of US prediction markets - by Chris Masse - 2007-05-08

Steve Levitt of Freakonomics: I WON’T SIGN YOUR PETITION, BOB. - 2007-05-08

NEWS — The best links on prediction markets — 2007-09-22

Sat, 22 Sep 2007 21:26:16 GMT

NewsFutures’ Competitive Forecasting and Idea Pageant technologies are both featured on UC Riverside’s eLab eXchange - by Emile Servan-Schreiber - 2007-09-17

Political Odds: Election Pundits Put Money On Their Favorite Candidates - 2007-09-03

UK Gambling Commission is taking effect this Saturday, September 1, 2007. - 2007-09-01

Bet on It! - by Spectrum Magazine - 2007-09-01

Does betting exchange BetFair handle more daily trades than the New York Stock Exchange? - 2007-08-23

The day the red flag went up at Betfair - Company's 'fraud team' could quickly see that the betting pattern was strange for Davydenko-Arguello match at obscure tournament. - 2007-08-12

Suspicious Betting in a Tennis Match - by WSJ's The Numbers Guy - [Nikolay Davydenko & BetFair] - 2007-08-09

BetFair suspends all bets in Tennis match. - 2007-08-07

Mark Longo interviews Russell Andersson of HedgeStreet - (MP3 file) - 2007-08-01

Ask The Market - Companies are leading the way in the use of prediction markets. The public sector may soon follow. - (PDF) - by Region Focus’ Vanessa Sumo - 2007-07-20

HISTORY: Prediction Markets Timeline - by Chris Masse - 2007-07-17

INTEL BUSINESS CASE: INTERNAL PREDICTION MARKETS DO WORK. - 2007-07-16

New Fee Structure At Tradesports Causes Confusion. - Jay Graziani - 2007-07-11

BETFAIR DOES FIGHT VIGOROUSLY ANY ATTEMPTS AT MONEY LAUDERING. - 2007-07-11

Entrepreneur taps into video-game prediction market. - [The Sim Exchange and the prediction markets] - by The Arizona Republic - 2007-07-10

Washington State Gambling Commission investigators seized computers from a Seattle-based Internet-betting site Betcha. - 2007-07-10

J.K. Rowling’s The Deathly Hallows = Harry Potter MUST Die! + Harry Potter Must NOT Die! - 2007-07-07

TradeSports Cost of Service - by Dep Throat - 2007-07-07

A Q&A With Intrade's John Delaney - by Freakonomics - 2007-07-05

The Science of Success - [Media Predict] - The New Yorker's James Surowiecki - 2007-07-09

The Second Workshop on Prediction Markets - by Yiling Chen - 2007-06-30

Economic Derivatives is dead. - WSJ blog - 2007-06-29

When enough people take a stake in the future, it's like a crystal ball. - (page two) - (republished) - by The Associated Press - 2007-06-23

TradeSports Cost of Service - 2007-06-22

Prediction Markets Accuracy - Nicolas Sarkozy’s Republican Party Wins Smaller Majority Than Expected in French House Of Representatives. - 2007-06-18

The Science Behind PPX - What’s the most accurate way to forecast the future? Simple: make predictions profitable—just like on the PopSci Predictions Exchange. - by Popular Science magazine's Michael Moyer - 2007-06-15

Morgan Stanley UK is upbeat on BetFair’s future… whereas Morgan Stanley Australia has a dim view of BetFair’s Australian operations. - 2007-06-12

Der Spiegel on prediction markets - 2007-06-12

Prediction markets for business and public policy (PDF file). - by Justin Wolfers and Andrew Leigh - 2007-06-08

FOMC - Federal Open Market Committee - June 2007 - 2007-06-06

TradeSports takes a Caribbean cruise. - 2007-06-06

Hillary Rodham Clinton - Event Derivatives & Prediction Markets - InTrade-TradeSports + BetFair + NewsFutures - 2007-05-30

BRENT STINSKI: Prediction Markets are Magic. - 2007-05-30

The truth on the 2000–2003 US DoD’s DARPA’s IAO’s FutureMAP/Policy Analysis Market project. - 2007-05-29

Ireland - Prediction Markets on the 2007 Irish General Election - 2007-05-27

The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications - 2007-05-25

With a prediction market, everyone brings a small piece of information to the table, and the consensus proves surprisingly accurate. - [The American on Justin Wolfers] - 2007-05-25

Demise of a Sarko Killer - (+ comments) - by Emile Servan-Schreiber - 2007-05-24

The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications - 2007-05-23

Media Predict’s Brent Stinski interviewed by Sandra Ruttan - 2007-05-23

Media Predict and “Infinite Reflection” - by Brent F. Stinski - 2007-05-22

Political betting blogger Mike Smithson met with Mark Davies, BetFair’s Managing Director (Corporate Affairs). - 2007-05-22

Brent Stinski + Simon & Shuster = Media Predict - [New York Times] - 2007-05-21

The Sim Exchange and Midas Oracle both made it in CNET News. - 2007-05-19

HedgeStreet opens prediction markets on potential corporate mergers or acquisitions. - 2007-05-19

HedgeStreet will launch a new class of CORPORATE ACTIONS contracts that enable investors to trade on the anticipated revenues and earnings per share (EPS) of large publicly owned corporations. - 2007-05-14

US DOJ searches financial records for traces of Internet gambling and betting. - 2007-05-12

Rolling In The (Virtual) Dough - The Hollywood Stock Exchange Is Played By Gamers And Movie Lovers Alike - 2007-05-11

NEWS — Who is BetFair's Chris Hellmers?

Mon, 07 May 2007 19:34:58 GMT

About Christian Hellmers - Director of US Business Development, Betfair - 2007-05-03

Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets interviewed by the Chicago Sun-Times - 2007-04-30

Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets tops the Web 2.0 wave. - 2007-04-30

2008 candidates: the bottom line - 2007-04-29

Slate's explainer on the legality (and illegality) of the prediction markets in the US. - 2007-04-27

Gambling Regulation & Enforcement Act 2007 - 2007-04-27

Who needs prediction markets when you can average probabilistic predictions?? - 2007-04-24

OPINION — The US economics scholars pleads the CFTC to allow experimental real-money prediction exchanges.

Mon, 07 May 2007 19:31:09 GMT

Statement on Prediction Markets - (Abstract SSRN - PDF file) - by Kenneth J. Arrow, Robert Forsythe, Michael Gorham, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, Daniel Kahneman, John O. Ledyard, Saul Levmore, Robert Litan, Paul Milgrom, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Charles R. Plott, Thomas C. Schelling, Robert J. Shiller, Vernon L. Smith, Erik Snowberg, Cass R. Sunstein, Paul C. Tetlock, Philip E. Tetlock, Hal R. Varian, Marco Ottaviani, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz - 2007-05-XX

Can Prediction Markets Help Eliminate Poverty? - by Michael Strong - 2007-05-05

Will InTrade-TradeSpots lose big after the (hypothetical) passing of the 2007 Internet Gambling Regulation and Enforcement Act??? - 2007-05-03

Alan Jewell of CASTrader in search of the perfect market design - by Alan Jewell - 2007-04-30

BetFair is a blessing in sports corruption war. - 2007-04-30

Meta Analysis on the Prediction Exchanges - by Chris Masse - 2007-04-30

Saudi Arabia prediction markets, anyone?? - by Chris Masse - 2007-04-29

Prediction markets will soon drive tectonic shifts for almost every corporate officer, including the CFO, CIO, CMO, CSO, and the heads of Logistics, Manufacturing, Procurement, and Sales. - 2007-04-27

User Interface & Target Audience: BetFair, TradeSports-InTrade, MatchBook, etc. - by Chris Masse - 2007-04-27

Hybrid Prediction Markets - by George Tziralis - 2007-04-27

FIRMWARE AND PREDICTION MARKETS: INKLING IS RIGHT. - [The integration of the prediction markets with the CRM/ERP systems.] - by Bo Cowgill of Google - 2007-04-26

Interview on LinuxWorld - by Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets - 2007-04-26

BetFair vs. TradeSports-InTrade - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-04-24

Leading political indicators - by Alex Forshawe - 2007-04-24

Europe’s foremost betting industry analyst gets a beating from The Wisdom Of Crowds’ James Surowiecki and John De Palma - [Wisdom of Crowds & horse race betting markets] - 2007-04-24

Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) is a bad US monopoly on political event derivatives / prediction markets. - by Anonymous & Chris Masse - 2007-04-24

OPINION - 2007 links on Prediction Markets

Mon, 23 Apr 2007 13:13:24 GMT

Robin Hanson as Prospective Economics Nobel Laureate - by Michael Strong - 2007-04-22

Irak WMDs prediction markets - by John De Palma - 2007-04-22

Globalization = Internationalization + Localization - [software for prediction markets should be translated in foreign languages] - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-04-22

Americans Need to Embrace Betting Exchanges as the Preferred Way to Bet. - by David Stalcup - 2007-04-21

Let’s create the Prediction Market Coalition Forces. - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-04-20

WHY THE ECONOMIST SHOULD ADD MARKET-GENERATED PROBABILITIES NEXT TO ITS CONTENT. - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-04-20

Why we need the X Groups - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-04-19

2016 Summer Olympics in Chicago: Prediction Markets, anyone?? - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-04-18

Is GMU professor Robin Hanson an inventor, an innovator, or… a complete loser?? - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-04-17

BETTORS need OddsChecker.com. But do TRADERS/SPECULATORS need it?? - by Niall O'Connor - 2007-04-14

X Groups & X Universes - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-04-13

Incite the free-market thinkers into *practicing* prediction markets. - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-04-12

How prediction exchanges can best encourage participation - by Bo Cowgill - 2007-04-11

2006 North Korea Missile prediction market: a scandal signed TradeSports-InTrade - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-04-11

DIY prediction markets — X Universes — X Groups - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-04-04

Chris Masse’s short thoughts on The Financial Times + play-money InTrade - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-04-04

The new fad = Media/Publishers + Prediction Exchanges - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-04-02

Yahoo!’s research scientist David Pennock’s biggest mistake - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-04-01

What they say about Midas Oracle - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-03-28

The Economist should set up The Open Institute of Prediction Markets. - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-03-25

The Economist’s Project Red Stripe: Turning The Economist Into An Economy - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-03-24

Deep Throat on the CFTC and the prediction markets - by Deep Throat - 2007-03-19

Prediction Markets Definitions - The Basics - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-03-18

PREDICTION MARKET: a prediction is traded on a market. - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-03-18

Why don’t more businesses use internal prediction markets? Are prediction markets a fad? - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-03-16

U Turn: Robin Hanson is against competitive forecasting, now. - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-03-16

Prediction Markets Definitions: PROFESSOR ROBIN HANSON TALKS BACK TO THE ONE-TRICK PONY. - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-03-15

A prediction market is an event derivative market designed with simplicity so as to facilitate retail trading. - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-03-14

All prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) should publish overall open interest data. - by Jason Ruspini - 2007-03-14

Structuring the Prediction Markets - by Jed Chistiansen - 2007-03-13

The Economic Derivatives Market - by Justin Wolfers - 2007-03-08

Blaming the media = easy. ||| Generating media coverage = difficult. - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-03-07

simExchange a Keynesian Beauty Contest - by Keith Jacks Gamble - 2007-03-06

What does the TradeSports/InTrade “split” really amount to? - by Deep Throat - 2007-03-06

Trader: InTrade-TradeSports management is neither reliable nor trustworthy. - 2007-03-05

Do Gambling Laws Threaten Prediction Markets? - by Tom W. Bell - 2007-03-05

Sets of play-money and real-money prediction markets - Jason Ruspini’s answer - 2007-03-02

Debunking HSX Alex Costakis’ conspiracy theory - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-02-24

Hollywood Stock Exchange’s Alex Costakis makes historical mistake, TOO. - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-02-23

Are BetFair and InTrade-TradeSports de facto monopolies? - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-02-22

Does Inkling CEO Adam Siegel deserve capital punishment, really!?? - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-02-22

A Big Trader’s Open Letter to TradeSports-InTrade - by Todd Griepenburg - 2007-02-21

Prediction Market Accuracy — Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers talk back to Barry Ritholtz. - 2007-02-21

Evaluating Probabilistic Predictions — David Pennock Edition - 2007-02-20

2005: TradeSports-InTrade’s Heyday - by Eric Zitzewitz - 2007-02-17

New York Times on prediction markets — REDUX - 2007-02-14

Decision-Making Tool vs. Decision-Aid Tool — Decision Markets Edition - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-02-22

A big trader voices criticism of TradeSports-InTrade. - by Todd Griepenburg - 2007-02-07

BetFair Case Study - Betting Exchange - Prediction Markets - 2007-02-01

A New Business Model for the Prediction Market Vendors - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-01-26

Email Interview: Ken Kittlitz - 2007-01-26

Reality Check on TradeSports-InTrade John Delaney’s Exil Statement - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-01-22

Does wisdom require markets? - by David Pennock - 2007-01-22

Discussion about applicability of prediction markets for long-term prediction! - by Christian Wiehe - 2007-01-22

Combining forecasts - by James Hamilton - 2007-01-07

David Yu appointed Betfair CEO. - January 4 - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-01-07

NEWS - 2007 links on Prediction Markets

Mon, 23 Apr 2007 13:08:04 GMT

The pictures of the BetFair Bet-o-Mobile - [BetFair Bet-o-Mobile: a vehicle with 19 TV screens, wireless Internet access and live satellite TV feeds] - 2007-04-23

OFFICIAL. Consensus Point clients are Best Buy, General Electric, Nokia, and Samsung. - 2007-04-17

ALL our real-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) have a play-money ground. - 2007-04-14

Storage Markets assesses itself —a la Google. - 2007-04-09

FT Predict = play-money InTrade by the Financial Times - 2007-04-02

Suggestions sent to The Economist: PREDICTION MARKETS ranks 8th. - 2007-03-26

USFE’s letter to the US CFTC - Binary Event Derivatives - 2007-03-22

Inkling Markets: New Logo, New HomePage - 2007-03-16

NewsFutures Timeline - 2007-03-14

Prediction Markets Timeline - 2007-03-13

Iowa Electronic Markets: Avian Influenza Prediction Markets + Influenza Prediction Markets - 2007-03-01

Oscars 2007 - Hollywood Stock Exchange - Bingo! - 2007-02-27

Oscars 2007 - TradeSports-InTrade - Bingo! - 2007-02-26

Were the NewsFutures real-money prediction markets on Dutch elections accurate? - 2007-02-23

Two Tipping Points for Inkling Markets and Market Scoring Rule - 2007-02-16

17 New British Casinos - 2007-01-25

Assessing the vendors of software for prediction markets - 2007-01-25

Using NETeller for TradeSports-InTrade, no more - 2007-01-25

NEWS — More Confab — 2006-12-19

Tue, 19 Dec 2006 22:27:49 GMT

Tech lessons learned from the wisdom of crowds - [Yahoo! Confab on prediction markets] - 2006-12-14

In a 1945 paper, the great Austrian economist F.A. Hayek described how prices set by a free market are really "a mechanism for communicating information" about the probability of future events.
Cowgill suggested that companies use reputation systems that encourage employee participation by showing whether someone is scoring better or worse in the prediction realm than his colleagues. "You can have winners in each department," Cowgill said, adding that he'd like Google's employee directory to reveal each person's accuracy. Google offers cash prizes and T-shirts to employees who score well, and the winners are calculated quarterly, Cowgill said. But he still stressed reputation systems as a better method: "In order to make it attractive in a forward sense you have to spend more and more money or the laws are going to have to change. I don't think either is likely to happen anytime soon."
HP Labs has created betting software called BRAIN that's designed for employees and managers; pharmaceutical giant Pfizer will use it starting next year. The unique feature is that BRAIN assigns people a profile based on how risk-averse they are. To test BRAIN, HP compared it to existing ways of forecasting memory prices--a key figure since memory represents up to 10 percent of the cost of a computer and HP spends billions of dollars on it a year. Instead of a 4 percent error rate for the existing method of forecasting DDR and DDR2 512MB memory prices, the prediction market had a 2.5 percent error rate, or a 37 percent improvement. A second trial to forecast HP Services operating profits yielded similar results. "We are able to pay real cash money to people without running afoul" of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said HP's Leslie Fine, because the betting market gives participants only rewards and does not let them lose money.

NEWS — Coverage of the Yahoo! Confab on prediction markets — 2006-12-19

Tue, 19 Dec 2006 21:56:48 GMT

Jellybeans of wisdom from confab.yahoo - [Yahoo! Confab on prediction markets] - 2006-12-16

Surowiecki explains: It’s the thrill of disruption. Prediction markets challenge our notions of authority. In the process, they make it easier for companies to access the knowledge that lies untapped within the organization as a whole. Sometimes, what is revealed runs counter to deeply held assumptions about decision making and existing hierarchies of command and control.

Prediction Markets at confab.yahoo - [Yahoo! Confab on prediction markets] - 2006-12-14

Eric Zitzewitz of Stanford then talked about [Prediction Market] Event Studies and cautioned that analysis of these markets can sometimes lead to the wrong conclusions, especially if the time period is wrong; e.g. when looking at S&P 500 data, the positive effect of Donald Rumsfeld's resignation swamped out the negative effect of Democratic congressional control.

Eric offered several reasons why a market is a better way to get information than a public opinion poll:
- Opinion polls often ask the wrong question (such as 'Whom did you vote for', rather than 'Who do you think will win the election?')
- Markets offer a financial or reputation incentive, leading to greater participation
- Market participants are self-selected; typically people who think they know more, trade more
- A community grows around the market and becomes knowledgeable
- Incidentally, studies have shown that there is no statistical difference in the results when play money is used instead of real money

However, there are caveats:
- An incentive is essential for this type of market to work (the information you get is not free!)
- Without adequate participation, the market can become illiquid
- If bids are not anonymous, there is the risk of an "echo chamber effect" (one person leads, and the others follow)
- Traders may collude, rather than acting individually

Yahoo’s Confab on Prediction Markets - [Yahoo! Confab on prediction markets] - 2006-12-14

And Eric Zitzewitz of Stanford suggested a company could run prediction markets to study the effect of public policy on the stock, the effect of corporate policy, or to understand how the market would view earnings, product success or political risks.

Prediction: Predictive markets will be a next big thing - [Yahoo! Confab on prediction markets] - 2006-12-14

"The value in prediction markets is if you ask the most important questions, no matter who it bugs, to get the highest value. What would happen if ran a form of government with these kinds of markets?," Hanson asked.
Saddled with the name BRAIN–Behaviorally Robust Aggregation of Information Networks–HP has applied its technology to predicting memory pricing. She described it as a "betting game with a behavioral twist." For predicting memory pricing, instead of a series of contentious meetings, the group, which included contract negotiators and others with credentials to contribute individual wisdom, had a few hours training in using the prediction market mechanism and were asked to make six predictions–one, three and six month pricing for two kinds of memory. The end result was less time spent and more accurate predictions. "Proper scoring rules incent truthful revelations, but we all have different preferences for risk. We needed way to amplify or temper the strength of an opinion. We designed a mechanism to contrast individual coefficients for each player, to summarize the risk attitude for each player beforehand," Fine said. The bets are aggregated and weighted on the risk profiles. It takes about 15 minutes for a small group, with some expertise or knowledge relevant to the question, to collectively answer a questions, such as if a bluetooth adapter is included in product X, what will the market share be. In a one year trial with 14 finance executives in the HP Services group, the BRAIN treatment predicting operating profits outperformed the traditional method in every quarter. In January, HP is launching a prediction market for drug giant Pfizer after a year trial.
Bo Cowgill of Google (at left) is a fan of using socially- and reputation-based rewards, rather than monetary prize (which are limited in the current regulatory environment), to give people incentives to participate. That seems to work in a culture like Google's, where employees like to compete with each other for cred. "If it's not intrinsically fun, you’ll have to pay them," Hanson said.

Yahoo’s new currency–the Yootle - [Yahoo! Confab on prediction markets] - 2006-12-13

As part of a virtual environment called Yootopia, Pennock said the Yahoo has created a currency, called the "Yootle," for prediction markets or for buying favors from other people on the network.
Pennock said that Yahoo Research is working on an entire Yootle economy with prediction markets inside, as well as other forms of auctions, group decision-making and friendly wagers.

[Australia] - CA, Betfair sign revenue deal. - [BetFair signs a Memorandum of Understanding with Cricket Australia] - 2006-12-13

Betfair has similar deals [in Australia with with the AFL and the PGA Australasian Tour and] with overseas sporting bodies including the International Cricket Council, the International Tennis Federation and the ATP tour, the English Football Association and UEFA, rugby league and rugby union in the UK, Racing Victoria and thoroughbred regulatory bodies in the UK, US, Ireland and South Africa.

[United Kingdom, E.U.] - Horse racing: Punters pay for starting price system - [horseracing] - 2006-12-13

The cost of betting has increased sharply since November 1 and continues to rise, following changes to the system used to record starting prices which were implemented at the start of last month.
As the cost of betting increases, the odds offered by the online exchanges - where the margin on the entire field at the off is typically less than 1% - become ever more attractive. It would appear that the SPRC have stopped the punters' bonanza for the time being. If the long-term effect is to drive backers away from betting shops and onto the internet, however, it may not feel like a victory for very long.

[Australia] - Western Australian Bill Bans Exchanges - [BetFair banned in a part of Australia. Horseracing lobby.] - 2006-12-11

Chicago Mercantile Exchange marks 25 years of trading in interest rate futures - [Eurodollar futures] - 2006-12-06