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Research — Research papers and articles on event derivatives (traded bets), prediction markets (event derivative markets) and prediction exchanges (event derivative exchanges) — Updated: 2008-06-12


MORE 2007 AND 2008 PAPERS WILL BE LISTED HERE SOON.



Private Prediction Markets and the Law - (PDF file) - (MO excerpts) - by Tom W. Bell - 2008-05-18


Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? - (MO excerpts) - (draft: PDF file) - by Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien - 2008-05-02


Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google - (PDF file - PDF file) - (MO excerpts) - by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz - 2008-01-06


Reading the Markets - Forecasting Prediction Markets By News Content Analysis - (PDF file) - by Ari Gilder and Kevin Lerman - 2007-xx-xx


Betting on Permutations - (PDF file) - by Yiling Chen, Lance Fortnow, Evdokia Nikolova, David M. Pennock. - 2007-xx-xx

Prediction markets: an information aggregation perspective to the forecasting problem - (PDF file) - by George Tziralis and Ilias Tatsiopoulos - (maybe written in 2006) - 2007-05-xx


Conditional Prediction Markets as Corporate Decision Support Systems – An Experimental Comparison with Group Deliberations - (PDF file, ask Timm) - by Timm Oliver Sprenger - 2007-04-13


An Analysis of the Superbowl Using Price Changes on an Online Prediction Exchange - (TradeSports) - (PDF - XLS file) - by Keith Jacks Gamble - 2007-02-08


Does Liquidity Affect Securities Market Efficiency? - (PDF) - [previous title: Does Noise Trading Affect Securities Market Efficiency?] - by Paul Tetlock - 2006-11-XX


Performance Based Sports Derivatives: A New Instrument - (PDF) - [About AllSportsMarket.com] - by Alper Ozgit - 2006-XX-XX


Learning in Prediction Markets - (PDF) - by Christopher P. Adams - 2006-08-09


Prediction markets: An information aggregation perspective to the forecasting problem - (PDF) - by Georgios G. Tziralis and Ilias P. Tatsiopoulos - 2006-09-??


Prediction Markets for Promoting the Progress of Sciences and the Useful Arts - (abstract) - (PDF) - (Complementary blog post) - by Tom Bell - 2006-08-04


Price Discovery Among the Punters: Using New Financial Betting Markets to Predict Intraday Volatility - (PDF - PDF - Preliminary, Please Do Not Distribute or Cite Without Permission) - by Eric Zitzewitz - 2006-07-00


Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2006 - [Prediction markets are rated "On The Rise".] - by Gartner Group - 2006-07-18


Prediction Markets and World Peace - (PDF) - [proposal] - by Michael Strong - 2006-07-00


Optimal Liquidity Provision for Decision Makers - (PDF - PDF) - by Paul C. Tetlock and Robert W. Hahn - 2006-06-00


Prediction markets as a tool for management of political risk - (PDF) - [prediction markets as tools for management of political risk] - by Ole Jakob Bergfjord - 2006-06-30


Prediction Markets and the Financial "Wisdom of Crowds" - (not on the Web - JBF - Volume 7, Number 1 - Editorial) - [a new genre of behavioral markets: the prediction markets] - by Russ Ray - 2006-xx-xx


Prediction markets: Aspects on transforming a buisness game into a valuable information aggregation tool - (PDF) - by Georgios G. Tziralis and Ilias P. Tatsiopoulos - 2006-04-19


Underreaction to New Information: Evidence from an Online Exchange - (PDF) - by Richard Borghesi - 2006-04-00


Description & Analysis of Information Markets - (PDF) - by Bernd H. Ankenbrand and Caroline Rudzinski - (2005-12-18) - 2006-03-09


Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections - (PDF - PDF - Discussed at Midas Oracle and at the WSJ) - by Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz - 2006-02-22


Distilling an Uncertain Future: Designing a Terrorism Prediction Market - (PDF) - by Adrien Amzallag - 2006-02-27


Manipulating Political Stock Markets: A Field Experiment and a Century of Observational Data - (PDF - PDF trading strategy) - by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf - (2005) - 2006-02-00


Five open questions about prediction markets - (PDF - PDF) - by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz - (2005-01-21) - 2006-02-00


Predictive Decisionmaking - (abstract - PDF - PDF - PDF) - by Michael Abramowicz - (2005) - 2006-??-??


A New Approach for Regulating Information Markets - (PDF) - by Robert W. Hahn and Paul C. Tetlock - (2004-12-00) - 2006-??-??


Typology of Markets for Pure Information Trading - (PDF) - by Bernd H. Ankenbrand - 2006-01-13


Aggregation of Information and Beliefs in Prediction Markets - (PDF) - by Marco Ottaviani and Peter Norman Sørensen - 2005-12-19


Searching for Google's Value: Using Prediction Markets to Forecast Market Capitalization Prior to an Initial Public Offering - (PDF) - by Joyce E. Berg, George R. Neumann and Thomas A. Rietz - 2005-12-00


Computation in a Distributed Information Market - (abstract - PDF) - by Joan Feigenbaum, Lance Fortnow, David M. Pennock, Rahul Sami - 2005-XX-XX


Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice - (PDF - PDF) - by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz - 2005-11-23


The Informed Press Favored the Policy Analysis Market - (PDF) - by Robin Hanson - (2005-03-18) - 2005-09-08


Markets For Markets: Origins and Subjects of Information Markets - [PDF file disguised as a CGI file] - by Miriam A. Cherry and Robert L. Rogers - 2005-09-01


Designing Real Terrorism Futures - (PDF) - by Robin Hanson - 2005-09-00


Does Liquidity Affect Securities Market Efficiency? - (PDF) - [previous title: Does Noise Trading Affect Securities Market Efficiency?] - by Paul Tetlock - 2006-11-XX


Performance Based Sports Derivatives: A New Instrument - (PDF) - [About AllSportsMarket.com] - by Alper Ozgit - 2006-XX-XX


Learning in Prediction Markets - (PDF) - by Christopher P. Adams - 2006-08-09


Prediction markets: An information aggregation perspective to the forecasting problem - (PDF) - by Georgios G. Tziralis and Ilias P. Tatsiopoulos - 2006-09-??


Prediction Markets for Promoting the Progress of Sciences and the Useful Arts - (abstract) - (PDF) - (Complementary blog post) - by Tom Bell - 2006-08-04


Price Discovery Among the Punters: Using New Financial Betting Markets to Predict Intraday Volatility - (PDF - PDF - Preliminary, Please Do Not Distribute or Cite Without Permission) - by Eric Zitzewitz - 2006-07-00


Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2006 - [Prediction markets are rated "On The Rise".] - by Gartner Group - 2006-07-18


Prediction Markets and World Peace - (PDF) - [proposal] - by Michael Strong - 2006-07-00


Optimal Liquidity Provision for Decision Makers - (PDF - PDF) - by Paul C. Tetlock and Robert W. Hahn - 2006-06-00


Prediction markets as a tool for management of political risk - (PDF) - [prediction markets as tools for management of political risk] - by Ole Jakob Bergfjord - 2006-06-30


Prediction Markets and the Financial "Wisdom of Crowds" - (not on the Web - JBF - Volume 7, Number 1 - Editorial) - [a new genre of behavioral markets: the prediction markets] - by Russ Ray - 2006-xx-xx


Prediction markets: Aspects on transforming a buisness game into a valuable information aggregation tool - (PDF) - by Georgios G. Tziralis and Ilias P. Tatsiopoulos - 2006-04-19


Underreaction to New Information: Evidence from an Online Exchange - (PDF) - by Richard Borghesi - 2006-04-00


Description & Analysis of Information Markets - (PDF) - by Bernd H. Ankenbrand and Caroline Rudzinski - (2005-12-18) - 2006-03-09


Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections - (PDF - PDF - Discussed at Midas Oracle and at the WSJ) - by Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz - 2006-02-22


Distilling an Uncertain Future: Designing a Terrorism Prediction Market - (PDF) - by Adrien Amzallag - 2006-02-27


Manipulating Political Stock Markets: A Field Experiment and a Century of Observational Data - (PDF - PDF trading strategy) - by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf - (2005) - 2006-02-00


Five open questions about prediction markets - (PDF - PDF) - by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz - (2005-01-21) - 2006-02-00


Predictive Decisionmaking - (abstract - PDF - PDF - PDF) - by Michael Abramowicz - (2005) - 2006-??-??


A New Approach for Regulating Information Markets - (PDF) - by Robert W. Hahn and Paul C. Tetlock - (2004-12-00) - 2006-??-??


Typology of Markets for Pure Information Trading - (PDF) - by Bernd H. Ankenbrand - 2006-01-13


Markets, Games, and Strategic Behavior: Recipes for Interactive Learning - (PDF) - by Charles A. Holt - 2005-09-00


Making Development Work - by Robert W. Hahn and Paul C. Tetlock - 2005-08-17


Information Aggregation and Manipulation in an Experimental Market - (PDF) - by Robin Hanson, Ryan Oprea, David Porter - 2005-07-12


Impolite Innovation - The Technology and Politics of Terrorism Futures and Other Decision Markets - (PDF) - by Robin Hanson - (2004-12-00) - 2005-07-00


The Tech Buzz Game - by Bernard Mangold, Mike Dooley, Gary W. Flake, Havi Hoffman, Tejaswi Kasturi, David M. Pennock and Rael Dornfest - (PDF) - 2005-07-00


Taxonomy for Information Markets - (PDF - PDF) - by Bernd H. Ankenbrand - 2005-06-16


Decision Market Predictions: Separating Efficiency and Bias - (PDF) - by Glenn Bean - 2005-06-01


Behavioral Mis-pricing and Arbitrage in Experimental Asset Markets - (PDF) - by Thomas A. Rietz - 2005-06-00


Information Markets: A Tool for Effective Decision Making - by Annie Yang - (PDF) - 2005-??-??


An In-Depth Analysis of Information Markets with Aggregate Uncertainty - (PDF) - by Yiling Chen, Tracy Mullen and Chao-Hsien Chu - 2005-XX-XX


Information Markets vs. Opinion Pools: An Empirical Comparison - (PDF - PDF - PDF) by Yiling Chen, Chao-Hsien Chu, Tracy Mullen and David M. Pennock - 2005-06-05~08


Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk - (PDF - PDF) - by Refet S. Gürkaynak and Justin Wolfers - 2005-05-24


Information Markets: Using Market Predictions to Make Today's Decisions - (abstract - PDF) - by Matt Einbinder - 2005-05-06


Polls and Markets in the 2004 Presidential Election - A Risk Premium to Explain Deviations between Polling Predictions and Market Prices - (PDF) - by Alexander Pagon - 2005-05-00


Predictive Decisionmaking - (abstract - PDF - PDF - PDF) - by Michael Abramowicz - 2005-04-07


Futures Backed Securities - (PDF - draft of an abstract of a thesis) - by Bernd H. Ankenbrand - 2005-04-04


Capital Ideas Revisited - The Prime Directive, Sharks, and The Wisdom of Crowds - (PDF) - by Michael J. Mauboussin - 2005-03-30


Statistical properties of an experimental political futures market - (PDF-23 - PDF-26 - PDF-26) - by Sun-Chong Wang, Sai-Ping Li, Chung-Ching Tai and Shu-Heng Chen - 2005-03-23&26


Deliberative democracy or market democracy: Designing institutions to aggregate preferences and information - (PDF) - by Adam Meirowitzl - 2005-03-23


The effectiveness of pre-release advertising for motion pictures - (PDF) - by Anita Elberse and Bharat Anand - 2005-03-05


[Australia] - Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets - (PDF - PDF) - by Andrew Leigh and Justin Wolfers - 2005-03-20


Market-Based Information for Decision Support in Human Resource Development - (PDF mirror) - David L. Passmore, Evin D. Cebeci and Rose M. Baker - 2005-03-00


Market Efficiency in Person to Person Betting Markets - (abstract PDF - abstract PDF) - by David Paton, Michael Smith and Leighton Vaughan-Williams - 2005-03-00


Zocalo: An Open-Source Platform for Deploying Prediction Markets - (PDF) - by Chris Hibbert - 2005-02-XX


What Groups Don't Know - (DOC file) - by Cass R. Sunstein - 2005-02-20


Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities - (PDF - PDF) - by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz - 2005-02-01


Consensus and Differences of Opinion in Electronic Prediction Markets - (PDF) - by  Thomas S. Gruca, Joyce E. Berg and Michael Cipriano - 2005-02-00


An Experimental Test of Combinatorial Information Markets - (PDF) - by John Ledyard, Robin Hanson and Takashi Ishikida - 2005-02-00


Big Ideas: The Market's Last Frontier - (PDF) - by Robert W. Hahn and Paul C. Tetlock - 2005-02-00


Presidential Reality Check: An Assessment of NewsFutures' 2004 Presidential Election Prediction Markets - (PDF) - by Emile Servan-Schreiber - 2005-01-27


Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets - (PDF) - by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz - 2005-01-21


The Iowa Electronic Market: Lessons Learned and Answers Yearned - (PDF) - by Joyce E. Berg and Thomas A. Rietz - 2005-01-00


Thoughts on the Theory and Practice of Speculative Markets - (FutureMAP/PAM&IEM) - (mirror) - by Mason Richey - 2005-01-00


Foul Play in Information Markets - (PDF) - by Robin Hanson - 2005-01-00


From uncertainty to risk? Problems with using prices in prediction markets to improve decision-making. - (PDF - working paper by a graduate student - See Hanson's comments) - by Ryan Bubb - 2005-01-00


Betting on the Future: Online gambling goes mainstream financial. - (PDF file) - [on the BetFair model] - by Michael Mainelli and Sam Dibb - 2004-12-xx


A New Approach for Regulating Information Markets - (PDF) - by Robert W. Hahn and Paul C. Tetlock - 2004-12-00


Impolite Innovation - The Technology and Politics of Terrorism Futures and Other Decision Markets - (PDF) - by Robin Hanson - 2004-11-16


Analysis of 2004 Political Futures Markets - (DOC file - working paper by 4 graduate students) - by Ken Allen, Kevin Daniels, Darby Kopp and Brian Murdock - Dartmouth U. - 2004-11-09


Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data - (PDF - PDF mirror) - by Ray C. Fair - 2004-11-00


Information (In)Efficiency in Prediction Markets - by Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz - (PDF) - 2004-10-01


Experimental Political Betting Markets and the 2004 Election - (PDF - PDF - PDF) - by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz - 2004-10-12


Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium - (PDF) - by Steven Gjerstad - 2004-10-11


Harnessing the Power of Information: A New Approach to Economic Development - (PDF) - by Robert W. Hahn and Paul C. Tetlock - 2004-10-00


How Information Markets Could Change the Policy World - (PDF) - by Robert W. Hahn and Paul C. Tetlock - 2004-10-00


Group Judgments - Deliberations, Statistical Means, and Information Markets - (PDF - PDF - PDF) - by Carl Sunstein - 2004-09-00 - Revised: 2004-10-00


Information Aggregation and Manipulation in an Experimental Market - (PDF) - by Robin Hanson, Ryan Oprea and David Porter - 2004-09-21


Using Information Markets to Improve Policy - (PDF) - by Robert W. Hahn - 2004-09-00


Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? - (PDF) - by Emile Servan-Schreiber, David Pennock, Justin Wolfers and Brian Galebach - 2004-09-00


Eliminating Public Knowledge Biases in Information-Aggregation Mechanisms - (PDF) - by Kay-Yut Chen, Leslie R. Fine and Bernardo A. Huberman - 2004-07-00


Manipulators Increase Information Market Accuracy - (PDF) - by Robin Hanson and Ryan Oprea - 2004-07-00


Terrorism Futures - A viable decision-market tool - (PDF) - by Russ Ray - Summer 2004


Learning from Terrorism Markets - (PDF - PDF) - by Adam Meirowitz and Joshua A. Tucker - 2004-06-00


The application of prediction markets to business - (PDF file) - by Jared M Schrieber - 2004-06-xx


Using Markets to Inform Policy: The Case of the Iraq War - #2 - (PDF - PDF) - by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz - 2004-06-00


Pricing Political Risks with Prediction Markets - (PDF - PDF) - by Justin Wolfers - 2004-06-00


Computation in a Distributed Information Market - (PDF) - by Joan Feigenbaum, Lance Fortnow, David M. Pennock and Rahul Sami - 2004-05-05


A Dynamic Pari-Mutuel Market for Hedging, Wagering, and Information Aggregation - (PDF) - by David M. Pennock - 2004-05-00


Prediction Markets - (PDF - PDF - PDF mirror - PDF mirror) - by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz - 2004-05-00


A Web-based Political Exchange for Election Outcome Predictions - TAIPEX Technical Report - (PDF) - by Sun-Chong Wang, Ching-Yun Yu, Kuang-Ping Liu and Sai-Ping Li - 2004-04-04


Bringing the Market Inside - (PDF mirror) - by Thomas W. Malone (Tom Malone) - Harvard Business Review - 2004-04-00


Prediction Markets: Betting on Risk Management - (mirror) - by Russ Ray - 2004-04-00


Suckers Are Born but Markets Are Made: Individual Rationality, Arbitrage, and Market Efficiency on an Electronic Futures Market - (PDF) - by Kenneth Oliven and Thomas A. Rietz - 2004-03-00


Historical Presidential Betting Markets - (PDF) - by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf - 2004-03-00


Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets - (PDF - PDF mirror) - by Charles F. Manski - 2004-02-00


How Efficient Are Information Markets? Evidence from an Online Exchange - (PDF) - by Paul C. Tetlock - 2004-01-00


Incentives for Prediction Markets - (confidential paper) - by Peter Bohm - 2004-01-00


Putting your money where your mouth is —information elicitation mechanism design when agents privately know their quality of information - (PDF) - by Fang Fang, Maxwell Stinchcombe and Andrew Whinston - 2004-00-00


Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems - (PDF) - by Joyce E. Berg and Thomas A. Rietz - 2003-XX-XX


The Effect of Electronic Markets on Forecasts of New Product Success - (PDF) - by Joyce E. Berg, Thomas S. Gruca and Michael Cipriano - 2003-XX-XX


Potential of Idea Futures Markets in Educational Technology - (PDF) - by David L. Passmore and Evin Dogan Cebeci - 2003-XX-XX


Historical Prediction Markets: Wagering on Presidential Elections - (PDF) - by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf - 2003-11-10


Internet-Based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting - (Abstract & Subscription - PDF - PDF mirror) - by Martin Spann and Bernd Skiera - 2003-10-00


Taking Stock of Virtual Markets - (PDF mirror) - by Martin Spann and Bernd Skiera - 2003-10-00


DARPA's Policy Analysis Market for Intelligence: Outside the Box or Off the Wall? - (PDF for subscribers - PDF mirror) - by Robert Looney - 2003-09-02


Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs? - (concept of "futarchy") - (PDF) - by Robin Hanson - 2003-09-00


Information Markets, Administrative Decisionmaking, and Predictive Cost-Benefit Analysis - (PDF - PDF) - by Michael Abramowicz - 2003-08-00


Accuracy and Forecast Standard Error of Prediction Markets - (PDF) - by Joyce Berg, Forrest Nelson and Thomas Rietz - 2003-07-00


The Policy Analysis Market - An Electronic Commerce Application of a Combinatorial Information Market - (PDF - PDF) - by Charles Polk, Robin Hanson, John Ledyard and Takashi Ishikida - 2003-06-09


Computation in a distributed information market - (PDF) - by Joan Feigenbaum, Lance Fortnow, David M. Pennock and Rahul Sami - 2003-06-00


Betting boolean-style: A framework for trading in securities based on logical formulas - (PDF) - by Lance Fortnow, Joe Kilian, David M. Pennock and Michael P. Wellman - 2003-06-00


Information incorporation in online in-game sports betting markets - (PDF) - by David M. Pennock, Sandip Debnath, C. Lee Giles and Steve Lawrence - 2003-06-00


Iowa Electronic Markets - (PDF) - by Paul Gomme - 2003-04-15


Book Orders for Market Scoring Rules - (PDF) - by Robin Hanson - 2003-04-02


What Do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq? - (PDF - PDF) - by Justin Wolfers, Andrew Leigh and Eric Zitzewitz - 2003-04-00


Eliminating Public Knowledge Biases in Information Aggregation Mechanisms - (PDF) - by Kay-Yut Chen, Leslie R. Fine and Bernardo A. Huberman - 2003-03-21


Combinatorial Information Market Design - (PDF) - by Robin Hanson - 2003-01-00


Predicting the Future - (PDF) - (republished as: Aggregating Diffuse Information with Subgroups) - by Kay-Yut Chen, Leslie R. Fine and Bernardo A. Huberman - 2003-01-00


Gambling for the Good, Trading for the Future: The Legality of Markets in Science Claims - (PDF - PDF) - by Tom W. Bell - 2002-XX-XX


Modeling information incorporation in markets with application to detecting and explaining events - (PDF) - by David M. Pennock, Sandip Debnath, Eric J. Glover and C. Lee Giles - 2002-XX-XX


Leading with an invisible hand - (PDF) - by Ajit Kambil - 2002-XX-XX


Avoiding Moral Hazards in Organizational Forecasting - (PDF) - by Tad Hogg and Bernardo A. Huberman - 2002-06-13


Manipulation in Political Stock Markets - Precondition and Evidence - (PDF) - by Jan Hansen, Carsten Schmidt and Martin Strobel - 2002-03-12


Information Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept, Design and Implementation for a Sales Forecasting Problem - (PDF) - by Charles R. Plott and Kay-Yut Chen - 2002-03-00


Securities Trading of Concepts (STOC) - (PDF) - by Nicholas Chan, Ely Dahan, Adlar Kim, Andrew Lo and Tomaso Poggio - 2002-01-23


Forecasting Inflation via Electronic Markets - (PDF - PDF) - by Michael Berlemann and Forrest Nelson - 2002-01-11


Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation - (PDF) - by Robin Hanson - 2002-01-00


Longshots, Overconfidence, and Efficiency on the Iowa Electronic Markets - (PDF) - by Joyce E. Berg and Thomas A. Rietz - 2002-01-00


Three Tools for Forecasting Federal Elections: Lessons from 2001 - (PDF) - by Justin Wolfers and Andrew Leigh - 2001-XX-XX


Aggregating Diffuse Information with Subgroups - (PDF) - by Kay-Yut Chen, Leslie R. Fine and Bernardo A. Huberman - 2001-11-20


Forecasting Uncertain Events with Small Groups - (DOC file) - by Kay-Yut Chen, Leslie R. Fine and Bernardo A. Huberman - 2001-10-00


Extracting collective probabilistic forecasts from web games - (PDF) - by David M. Pennock, C. Lee Giles, Steve Lawrence and Finn Arup Nielsen - 2001-08-00


Do Electronic Markets Improve Forecasts of New Product Success? - (PDF) - by Thomas S. Gruca, Joyce Berg and Michael Cipriano - 2001-06-00


The power of play: Efficiency and forecast accuracy in web market games - (PDF) - by David M. Pennock, C. Lee Giles, Steve Lawrence and Finn Arup Nielsen - 2001-02-17


The real power of artificial markets - (PDF) - by David M. Pennock, C. Lee Giles, Steve Lawrence and Finn Arup Nielsen - 2001-01-00


Markets as Information Gathering Tools - (PDF) - by Charles R. Plott - 2000-XX-XX


Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research - (PDF) - by Joyce Berg, Robert Forsythe, Forrest Nelson and Thomas Rietz - 2000-11-00


The Predictive Power of Internet-Based Product Concept Testing Using Visual Depiction and Animation - (PDF) - by Ely Dahan and V. Srinivasan - 2000-00-00


Decision markets - (PDF) - by Robin Hanson - 1999-05-00


Forecasting markets - An industrial application - (PDF-URL??) - by Gerhard Ortner - 1998-03-00


Markets and the Use of Knowledge - Testing the Hayek hypothesis in Experimental Stock Markets - (PDF) - by Klaus Beckmann and Martin Werding - 1994-04-00


Idea Futures: Encouraging an Honest Consensus - (PDF) - by Robin Hanson - 1992-11-00


Could Gambling Save Science? - (Reply to Comments) - by Robin Hanson - 1990-07-00




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