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Opinion — Lead editorials, op'eds, columns, blog posts, and other comments written on event derivatives (traded bets), prediction markets (event derivative markets) and prediction exchanges (event derivative exchanges) — Updated: 2008-07-17


Prediction Markets: Wisdom Of The Crowd Comes To The Enterprise. - (MO mirror soon) - by Forrester - 2007-07-14

The CFTC close comments on the regulation of "event markets" (prediction markets). - (PDF file) - (MO mirror) - 2008-07-07

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets) - (InTrade PDF file) - (CFTC PDF file) - (MO mirror) - 2007-07-04

The Promise of Prediction Markets - (PDF file) - (MO excerpts) - by American Enterprise Institute - 2008-05-xx

CFTC Oversight May Not be a Boon. - by Chris Hibbert - 2008-05-03

The social utility of the event derivative markets - by professor Vernon Smith - 2008-05-01

New Understandings in Sports Betting - (PDF file) - by BetFair's Mark Davies - 2008-04-04

The Promise Of Prediction Markets - by McKinsey - 2008-04-XX

Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work? Are they of value? - See debate between Robin Hanson and Bo Cowgill - 2008-02-02

Far from failing in New Hampshire, prediction markets performed at their best, providing traders with a much needed reality check. - by Emile Servan-Schreiber - 2008-01-11

Prediction markets are not worst, and more often, at least slightly better, than the other forecasting tools. - by Robin Hanson - 2008-01-09

Robin Hanson is not convinced by the Google experiment with enterprise prediction markets –to say the least. - (Another comment of the same vein.) - 2008-01-14

Does the existence of betting exchanges corrupt sport? - NO. - by BetFair's Mark Davies - 2007-12-12

Why does Tradefair care about Prediction Markets - by TradeFair's David Jack - 2007-12-06

Before It's Too Late - by Adam Siegel (Inkling CEO) - 2007-11-02

Crowdsourcing The Crystal Ball - by Forbes’s James Surowiecki - 2007-10-15

Outputs Require Inputs - by Robin Hanson - 2007-09-17

E-Mail Interview with Michael Giberson - 2007-09-16

Prediction markets is a meta forecasting tool. - by Chris Masse - 2007-09-01

Price Biases in a Prediction Market: NFL Contracts on Tradesports - by Rick Borghesi - 2007-08-19

Interpreting probabilistic predictions from betting exchanges - by Emile Servan-Schreiber - 2007-08-14

Blow the Whistle on Betting Scandals - [Op-Ed in the New York Times on sports betting and sports corruption] - by Justin Wolfers - 2007-07-27

Squawk on Prediction Markets - [legality of prediction markets in the U.S.] - by Tom Bell - 2007-05-16

Robert Hahn and Paul Tetlock’s Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal -  2007-05-11

Safe Harbor Letter too Timid - by Chris Hibbert - 2007-05-10

Experimenting with different market types - by Jed Christiansen - 2007-05-10

Steve Levitt of Freakonomics: I WON’T SIGN YOUR PETITION, BOB. - 2007-05-08

Statement on Prediction Markets - (Abstract SSRN + PDF file) - by Kenneth J. Arrow, Robert Forsythe, Michael Gorham, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, Daniel Kahneman, John O. Ledyard, Saul Levmore, Robert Litan, Paul Milgrom, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Charles R. Plott, Thomas C. Schelling, Robert J. Shiller, Vernon L. Smith, Erik Snowberg, Cass R. Sunstein, Paul C. Tetlock, Philip E. Tetlock, Hal R. Varian, Marco Ottaviani, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz - 2007-05-XX

Who needs prediction markets when you can average probabilistic predictions?? - 2007-04-24

FIRMWARE AND PREDICTION MARKETS: INKLING IS RIGHT. - [The integration of the prediction markets with the CRM/ERP systems.] - by Bo Cowgill of Google - 2007-04-26

Americans Need to Embrace Betting Exchanges as the Preferred Way to Bet. - by David Stalcup - 2007-04-21

How prediction exchanges can best encourage participation - by Bo Cowgill - 2007-04-11

2006 North Korea Missile prediction market: a scandal signed TradeSports-InTrade - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-04-11

Structuring the Prediction Markets - by Jed Chistiansen - 2007-03-13

The Economic Derivatives Market - by Justin Wolfers - 2007-03-08

Do Gambling Laws Threaten Prediction Markets? - by Tom W. Bell - 2007-03-05

Designing Markets for Monthly Sales - 2007-02-23

Evaluating Probabilistic Predictions — David Pennock Edition - 2007-02-20

Decision-Making Tool vs. Decision-Aid Tool — Decision Markets Edition - by Chris. F. Masse - 2007-02-22

BetFair Case Study - Betting Exchange - Prediction Markets - 2007-02-01

Email Interview: Ken Kittlitz - 2007-01-26

Does wisdom require markets? - by David Pennock - 2007-01-22




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