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News
articles reporting on event derivatives (traded bets),
prediction markets (event derivative markets) and prediction exchanges (event derivative exchanges) — Updated: 2008-07-17
BetFair implements a brand-new bet-matching logic . - (MO mirror ) - 2007-07-14
Regulation
Looms for Prediction Markets. - The Commodity Futures Trading
Commission is likely to become involved in regulating event futures—and
it just may boost these markets. - by BusinessWeek - 2008-07-07
The CFTC close comments on the regulation of "event markets" (prediction markets) . - (PDF file ) - (MO mirror ) - 2008-07-07
Software taps into the zeitgeist to predict the future . - 2008-05-27
Prediction Market prices can point to a sure thing . - by Financial Times' John Authers - 2008-05-17
BetFair Puts Focus on the Fix in Sports Bets . - by New York Times' Joe Drape - 2008-05-15
Prediction Markets: Co-Creating An Organization's Future - (PDF file ) - by Inside Knowledge Magazine's Victoria Axelrod and Jenny Ambrozek - 2008-05-10
Foretelling The Future: Online Prediction Markets - (video ) - by ABC 20/20's John Stossel and Maxim Lott - 2008-05-09
Betting to Improve the Odds - by New York Times' Steve Lohr - 2008-04-09
How the US Federal Reserve and the US Treasury will try to apply the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 - 2008-04-02
BetFair withdraws / improves its brand-new matching-bet logic . - 2008-03-19
Prediction market platform taps the wisdom of employees, partners, customers - 2008-03-01
When Markets Beat The Polls - Scientific American Magazine - 2008-03-XX
BetFair Starting Price - 2008-02-XX
Best Bet for Next President: Prediction Markets - Prediction markets can cut through the clutter of polls and pundits. - by Justin Wolfers - 2007-12-31
Mob
wisdom means business - So-called 'crowdsourcing' lets companies create
massive focus groups, garner fresh ideas, and even predict the future. - by InfoWorld - 2007-12-10
YouBet - The wonders and dangers of online sports wagering. - (page 2 ) - [BetFair explained to the Americans] - by Slate's T.D. Thornton - 2007-11-28
The future of futurology = The prediction markets - The Economist - 2007-11-XX
The details on BetFair’s Starting Prices - by BetFair's Stephen Burn - [MO mirror ] - 2007-11-22
IG Group Holdings’ 6$m rationale for buying HedgeStreet - [MO mirror ] - 2007-11-20
FlyWheel = BetFair’s advanced trading engine - [MO mirror - MO mirror ] - 2007-11-15
New SP system wins approval of high rollers - [The BetFair Starting Prices… explained in The Guardian.] - 2007-11-13
BetFair Australia is a low-margin betting operator that helps horse racing compete against the other gambling products. - 2007-11-07
How does a betting exchange work? - [about the Fallon case] - 2007-10-08
Hollywood Ending - [republished for free with permission on Midas Oracle ] - by Trader Daily's Robert LaFranco - 2007-10-04
Bet on It! - by Spectrum Magazine - 2007-09-01
Ask The Market - Companies are leading the way in the use of prediction markets. The public sector may soon follow. - (PDF ) - by Region Focus’ Vanessa Sumo - 2007-07-20
INTEL BUSINESS CASE: INTERNAL PREDICTION MARKETS DO WORK. - 2007-07-16
A Q&A With Intrade's John Delaney - by Freakonomics - 2007-07-05
The Science of Success - [Media Predict] - The New Yorker's James Surowiecki - 2007-07-09
Economic Derivatives is dead. - WSJ blog - 2007-06-29
When enough people take a stake in the future, it's like a crystal ball. - (page two ) - (republished ) - by The Associated Press - 2007-06-23
The
Science Behind PPX - What’s the most accurate way to forecast the
future? Simple: make predictions profitable—just like on the PopSci
Predictions Exchange. - by Popular Science magazine's Michael Moyer - 2007-06-15
Prediction markets for business and public policy (PDF file ). - by Justin Wolfers and Andrew Leigh - 2007-06-08
TradeSports takes a Caribbean cruise. - 2007-06-06
With
a prediction market, everyone brings a small piece of information to
the table, and the consensus proves surprisingly accurate. - [The American on Justin Wolfers] - 2007-05-25
US DOJ searches financial records for traces of Internet gambling and betting. - 2007-05-12
Rolling In The (Virtual) Dough - The Hollywood Stock Exchange Is Played By Gamers And Movie Lovers Alike - 2007-05-11
Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets interviewed by the Chicago Sun-Times - 2007-04-30
Slate's explainer on the legality (and illegality) of the prediction markets in the US. - 2007-04-27
Gambling Regulation & Enforcement Act 2007 - 2007-04-27
USFE’s letter to the US CFTC - Binary Event Derivatives - 2007-03-22
More Information
Disambiguation
The Products
traded bets; traded predictions; event derivatives ; event-driven
derivatives; event derivative contracts; information derivatives; information derivative contracts.
The Markets
bet markets; betting
markets; event derivative markets; information derivative markets; prediction markets.
The Exchanges
bet exchanges; betting exchanges; event derivative exchanges; information
derivative exchanges; prediction exchanges.
The Technology
market-based technology; trading engine; trading technology.
Other Terms
binaries; binary, European call
options; European binary options; binary event options; event
futures; event-driven futures; idea futures; information futures.
Inappropriate Terms
event
markets; idea markets; information markets; opinion
markets; predictive markets.
Sub-Categories of Prediction Markets
Decision markets are conditional
prediction markets intended (by some idealists) to be used as a
decision-making tool replacing human decision
makers;
Decision-aid markets are conditional
prediction markets intended to be used as a decision-aid tool advising
human decision makers.
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