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Explainers on event derivatives (traded bets), prediction markets (event derivative markets) and prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) —  Updated: 2008-07-23

1. People's Explainers
2. Open Organizations' Explainers
3. Experts' Explainers

1. People's Explainers

• Yahoo! Answers
  • "prediction markets" — "prediction market"
• Google Answers — This service has been decommissioned.
  • "prediction markets" — "prediction market"
• Other resources will listed listed here, later on...

2. Open Organizations' Explainers

• WikiMedia
  • WikiBooks — WikiBooks - (English) — Search for "prediction markets"
  • WikiNews — WikiNews - (English) — Search for "prediction markets"
  • Wikipedia — Wikipedia - (English) — Prediction Markets — Betting Exchanges — Derivatives — The Wisdom Of Crowds — Collective Intelligence — Forecasting
• Google Knol
  • Google Knol — Prediction Markets by Chris Masse — Others later...
• Other wikis will listed listed here, later on...

3. Experts' Explainers

• Midas Oracle
  • Explainer on prediction markets - at Midas Oracle .ORG
  • List of explainers on prediction markets - at Midas Oracle .ORG
  • "Explainers" post category - at Midas Oracle .ORG
  • Prediction Market Science - at Midas Oracle .ORG
  • Prediction Markets Timeline - at Midas Oracle .ORG
• Robin Hanson
  • The Robin Hanson explainer on prediction markets - (PPT file) - by Robin Hanson - 2007-09-05
  • Prediction Markets Definitions - by Robin Hanson - 2006-11-21
  • The concept of Info Value - by Robin Hanson - 2008-01-14
  • Idea Futures (not updated) — Futarchy — The Policy Analysis Market (and FutureMAP) Archive - by Robin Hanson
• David Pennock
  • Does wisdom require markets? - by David Pennock - 2007-01-19
  • How and When to Listen to the Crowd - by David Pennock - 2007-02-09
  • Evaluating probabilistic predictions - by David Pennock - 2006-12-26
  • Implementing Hanson’s Market Maker - by David Pennock - 2006-10-30
• Eric Zitzewitz
  • Prediction Market Event Studies - by Eric Zitzewitz - 2006-12-13
• Panos Ipeirotis
  • Prediction Market Efficiency vs. Prediction Market Accuracy - by Panos Ipeirotis
  • Defining Probability in Prediction Markets - by Panos Ipeirotis
• Chris Hibbert
  • PM Intro: Basic Formats - [simple double auctions] - by Chris Hibbert - 2005-12-30
  • PMs with Open-Ended Prices - [markets with open-ended prices] - by Chris Hibbert - 2006-01-05
  • Looking at Both Sides - [the symmetry of complementary purchases] - by Chris Hibbert - 2006-04-17
  • Market Design: Book and Market Maker - [how to integrate an order book with an automated market maker] - by Chris Hibbert - 2006-04-28
  • Increasing Liquidity in Multi-Outcome Claims - [the mechanics of multi-outcome markets] - by Chris Hibbert - 2006-07-19
  • Continuous Outcomes: Bands, Ladders, and Scaled Claims - [predicting the value of a continuous variable] - by Chris Hibbert - 2006-09-20
  • Integrating Book Orders and Market Makers - (mirror on MO) - by Chris Hibbert - 2006-09-20
  • Conditional and Combinatorial Betting - (mirror on MO) - by Chris Hibbert - 2007-03-06
  • Market Makers for Multi-Outcome Markets - (mirror on MO) - by Chris Hibbert - 2007-09-10
• Jed Christiansen
  • What is a prediction market? - YouTube video - by Jed Christiansen - 2007-09-05
  • How can I use a prediction market in my business? - YouTube video - by Jed Christiansen - 2007-09-19
  • Prediction Markets = Clear Expiry + Disperse Information + Participation Incentives - by Jed Christiansen - 2007-11-27
• BetFair
  • BetFair's explainer on betting exchanges - by BetFair
  • Trading Bets at BetFair - Betting Exchange Explainer - Backing vs. Laying - by BetFair
• TradeFair
  • TradeFair Binaries User Guide - What is Trading? - by TradeFair
  • Why does Tradefair care about Prediction Markets - by TradeFair's David Jack - 2007-12-06
• InTrade-TradeSports
  • A virtual tour of InTrade, the leading prediction exchange for North America - (InTrade's YouTube videos) - 2007-11-05
• NewsFutures
  • What is a prediction market and how can you trade on it? - by Bet2Give
  • Mechanism designs and market structures for corporate forecasting - by Emile Servan-Schreiber
• Inkling Markets
  • Before It's Too Late - Prediction markets work by soliciting input across a diverse group of traders inside and/or outside the organization. - by Adam Siegel (Inkling CEO) - 2007-11-02
  • The Inkling Markets explainer on prediction markets - by Inkling Markets
  • Create your own prediction market at Inkling Markets in just 5 steps. - by Inkling Markets
• New York Times
  • The history of prediction markets - 2007-11-04
• Slate
  • Slate's explainer on the legality (and illegality) of the prediction markets in the US. - 2007-04-27
• BusinessWeek
  • A Guide to Prediction Markets: Tip Sheet - These forecasting tools are just making their way into the boardroom. Here are some pointers on understanding and using these markets. - [internal prediction markets]
• BBC News
  • How does a betting exchange work? How does BetFair work? - 2007-12-07
• Forrester
  • Prediction Markets: Wisdom Of The Crowd Comes To The Enterprise. - 2007-07-14
• Other resources will listed listed here, later on...

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More Information

• "Explainers" post category at the Midas Oracle blog

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Disambiguation

• The Products
  • traded bets; traded predictions; event derivatives; event-driven derivatives; event derivative contracts; information derivatives; information derivative contracts.
• The Markets
  • bet markets; betting markets; event derivative markets; information derivative markets; prediction markets.
• The Exchanges
  • bet exchanges; betting exchanges; event derivative exchanges; information derivative exchanges; prediction exchanges.
• The Technology
  • market-based technology; trading engine; trading technology.
• Other Terms
  • binaries; binary, European call options; European binary options; binary event options; event futures; event-driven futures; idea futures; information futures.
• Inappropriate Terms
  • event markets; idea markets; information markets; opinion markets; predictive markets.
• Sub-Categories of Prediction Markets
  1. Decision markets are conditional prediction markets intended (by some idealists) to be used as a decision-making tool replacing human decision makers;
  2. Decision-aid markets are conditional prediction markets intended to be used as a decision-aid tool advising human decision makers.

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