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Exchanges — Prediction
exchanges (bet exchanges, betting exchanges, event derivative
exchanges)
organizing real-money and play-money prediction
markets
(bet markets, betting markets, event
derivative markets) — Updated: 2009-05-22
- Real-Money
Prediction Exchanges
- Play-Money
Prediction Exchanges
- Miscellaneous
1. Real-Money
Prediction Exchanges —
(a.k.a. bet exchanges, betting exchanges, event derivative exchanges)
BetFair
- (Hammersmith, London, England, United
Kingdom, E.U.) — Alternate URLs: BetFair.co.uk
& Flutter.com & BetFair.eu
- BetFair No Frills — BetFair Lite —
Betfair Mobile
— BetFair iPhone —
- BetFair Sports — BetFair
Soccer — BetFair American
Football — BetFair Baseball
— BetFair
Basketball — BetFair Tennis — BetFair
Rugby — BetFair
Cricket — BetFair Ice Hockey
— BetFair
Volleyball — BetFair
Darts — BetFair
Politcs —
- BetFair RSS
feeds - (a.k.a. BetFair Results Service) —
- BetFair
Historical Data
—
- BetFair
Calendar —
- BetFair
Extras —
- Betfair
- Know Your Customer (KYC) — Betfair Payments
—
- BetFair Dot Info — BetFair Promo
— BetFair Prono - Demo — Betfair - About Us
- (including BetFair Charges) — BetFair FAQs — BetFair Help
& BetFair Help —
- BetFair
Service —
- BetFair
Rules & Regulations —
- BetFair BAT
- (BetFair Advantage Tool) —
- BetFair
Live Odds Comparison — BetFair
Live Odds Comparison disclosure —
- BetFair
Starting Prices - Info — BetFair
Starting Prices - Prices —
- Betfair
Solutions Directory — Betfair Developers Program —
Betfair Developers -
Find-A-Developer —
- BetFair
- Refer & Earn — BetFair - Refer & Earn —
- BetFair Labs
— BetFair Preview
—
- BetFair
by TimeForm — TimeForm
—
- Greyhound
Racing Guide —
- BetFair
Forum — Betting @ BetFair — BetFair Predicts —
BetFair Radio
— BetFair Live
Video — BetFair InPlay
- (monthly magazine) — BetFair TV - TV Listings — BetFair's
partner: Stats
on Sport —
- BetFair -
Australia
- (Technopark, Glenorchy, Hobard, Tasmania, Australia) — 50%
owned by Australia-based Packer family's Publishing and Broadcasting
Limited (PBL). — Traders should use the Australian
wallet. — BetFair
Corporate - Australia —
- BetFair -
Germany
- (Germany, E.U.) —
- BetFair Italy — A bookmaker, not a betting exchange.
- Licensed
in the U.K., Germany, Austria, Italy, Malta, and Australia. —
South Africa, next?
- Inactive websites: BetFair USA —
BetFair Ireland —
BetFair France — BetFair Spain — BetFair .NET
(unclaimed) —
- Memorandums of understanding with European, U.K. and
Australian
sporting
bodies —
- Betfair
Corporate — BetFair is owned by The Sporting
Exchange Ltd. — Founded in 1999 by Andrew
Black and Edward Wray, and launched in 2000. —
- BetFair is
regulated by U.K.'s
Gambling Commission. —
- BetFair is
a member of the Independent
Betting Arbitration Service. —
- BetFair — SportsBook
Review rating: A+ (Scale: A+ to F-) — Bookmakers
Review rating: 5 / 5 —
InTrade
- (Dublin, Ireland,
E.U.) — Open to U.S.
residents.
Intrade Board of Trade - (Dublin, Ireland, E.U.)
— Exempt
Board of Trade (EBOT) that filed notice with the CFTC. -
- Never had any activity. Shallow project.
TradeSports
- (The Commonwealth of Dominica - Previously: The Netherlands Antilles
- Previously: Dublin, Ireland,
E.U.) — Open to U.S.
residents. — Launched in 2002 by John Delaney. — TERMINATED SINCE NOVEMBER 2008.
HedgeStreet
- (Delaware, U.S.A. & San Mateo, California,
U.S.A.) — Open to U.S. residents only.
- A designated contract market (DCM)
and a registered derivatives clearing organization (DCO), HedgeStreet
is subject to regulatory oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission (CFTC). —
- Launched in 2004 by John Nafeh, Russell Andersson, and
Ursula Burger — Now owned by IG Index —
Iowa
Electronic Markets - (IEM) - (Iowa City,
Iowa, U.S.A.) — Received two "no-action"
letters from the CFTC. — IEM
was launched in 1988 by prediction market co-inventors Robert Forsythe,
Forrest Nelson, and George
Neumann. — Research purpose; capped
accounts. — Open to U.S. and international residents.
Cantor Exchange - (U.S.A.)
American Civics Exchange - (U.S.A.) — CFTC-regulated Board of Trade (eBOT). Focused on politics.
Bet 2 Give -
(Maryland, U.S.A.) — Donations to charities. — Powered by
NewsFutures.
The Penn
State Prediction Markets - (Penn State U., Pennsylvania,
U.S.A.) - 2007
UBC Election
Stock Market
- (UBC-ESM) - (British Columbia, Canada) — Research
purpose; capped accounts — Launched in 1996.
TradeFair -
(Hammersmith, London, England, United
Kingdom, E.U.) — Binaries and Spreads — A subsiduary of The Sporting Exchange — Launched in 2007
iPredict New Zealand - (New Zealand) - iPredict New Zealand has been declared a futures dealer by the New
Zealand Securities Commission, which means iPredict is treated as an
exchange under securities law.
Smarkets -
(England, United Kingdom, E.U.) - 2008
MatchBook - (Antigua & Ireland, E.U.) — Open to U.S.
residents. — Owned by WSEX.
World Sports
Exchange
- (WSEX) - (Antigua) — The "Long-Term Markets" make
use of
CDA. The
other lines are typical of the betting operations of any sportsbook,
and thus are not of interest to us. — Founded in 1996
Betdaq
- (United
Kingdom, E.U. & Ireland, E.U.) — Founded in
2001 — Owned by The Global Betting Exchange
WBX - (World Bet Exchange) - (United
Kingdom, E.U.)
SpreadFair
- (England, United
Kingdom, E.U.) — The world's first spread-betting
exchange. — Authorized and regulated by the U.K.'s Financial
Services
Authority — Launched in 2004/2005??? — Owned by Cantor
Fitzgerald —
Other Betting Exchanges: eHorseX - iBetX - MyBet - BetOnBet - Betsson
ToteExchange
- (United Kingdom, E.U.) - UK Tote - Just a registered
domain name, as for now.
JusTrade - (South Africa) —
JusTrade was granted an exchange license by the Financial Services
Board (FSB). — Launched in 2008 by Rory Mackay and
Michael Franze.
INREEX -
(International
Real Estate Exchange) - (London, England, United Kingdom, E.U.) —
Real-money house price prediction exchange — Launched in
2006 by Paul Rozenberg and Gene Sokolov
Red Monitor
- (Austria, E.U.) — URL: RedMonitor
— in German — Red Monitor is subject to the Austrian
Finanzmarktaufsicht supervision. Red Monitor’s non-CDA market design is
original and patented. Scientific and private use is free.
All Sports Market
- (Costa Rica)
Derivative Exchanges
CME Group
- (Chicago,
Illinois, U.S.A.) — A new entity representing the July 2007 merger of
the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board of Trade
(CBOT).
Chicago Board Options
Exchange - (CBOE) - (Chicago, Illinois,
U.S.A.) — A CBOT subsidiary — Regulated by the Commodity Futures
Trading
Commission (CFTC)
US Futures Exchange
- (USFE) -
(U.S.A.) - USFE is a designated contract maker (DCM). — USFE uses
The Clearing Corporation to provide its clearing services.
Chicago Futures Exchange
- (CFE)
- (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.) — Owned by Chicago Board
Options Exchange (CBOE) — Regulated by the Commodity Futures
Trading
Commission (CFTC) — Launched in 2004.
International
Securities Exchange
- (ISE) - (New York City, New York, U.S.A.) — Alternative
markets — MidPoint Match platform, with Best Bid Offer
(BBO) — Owns Longitude — ISE is now owned
by Deutsche Börse.
Philadelphia Board of
Trade
- (PBOT) - (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.) — Soon to
launch event-driven futures markets — All options and
futures traded at PBOT are cleared at The Options Clearing
Corporation. — Owned by Philadelphia Stock Exchange (PHLX) —
Regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission (CFTC) — Relaunched in 2005.
Nasdaq Options Exchange - (New York City, New York, U.S.A.) -
2007
Simili, Real-Money Prediction Exchanges
Poolitics -
(New York
City, New York, U.S.A.) — Not CDA; Pool
betting. — Blog interface (Drupal) — Launched in
2004 by Brett Michaelson.
Ticket Options Exchanges
YooNew - (U.S.A.)
First DIBZ - (U.S.A.)
Real-Money Prediction Exchange - Projects
Da Vinci Trade - (Costa Rica)
Cantor Exchange - (U.S.A.) — CFTC regulated. With the Hollywood Stock Exchange.
2. Play-Money
Prediction Exchanges
— (a.k.a. virtual prediction exchanges, fantasy prediction
exchanges, virtual betting exchanges,
fantasy betting
exchanges)
HubDub
- (Scotland, United
Kingdom, E.U.) — Play-money prediction exchange & News
aggregator —
Founded in the of end of 2007 by Nigel Eccles
NewsFutures
- (Maryland, U.S.A. & France, E.U.) — French News Exchange
- Hungarian —
Founded in 2000 by Emile Servan-Shreiber and Maurice
Balick — Godfathered by Robin Hanson (a prediction market
co-inventor)
- NewsFutures
Message Boards —
- Global
Risks Prediction Market —
The Global Risks Prediction Market is a public play-money prediction
exchange. It is owned (i.e., published) by the World
Economic Forum. NewsFutures powers, web-hosts, and co-operates it in
collaboration with WEF staff. — Launched in 2006. — A
mix
between CDA trading and Scoring Rule (Competitive Forecasting)
Inkling Markets
- (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.) — URL: Inkling Markets
— Uses Robin Hanson's Market Scoring Rules (a mix between CDA
and
Scoring Rules), in one dimension — Uses an automated market maker (AMM)
— Launched in 2006 by Adam Siegel, Jim
Richmond and Nathan Kontny
Foresight
Exchange - (FX, FSX) - (Alberta, Canada) —
URL: IdeoSphere
- Alternate URL: Idea
Futures —
Launched in 1994 by Ken
Kittlitz, Sean Morgan, Mark James, Greg James, David McFadzean and
Duane Hewitt — Godfathered by Robin Hanson (a prediction market
co-inventor)
Reality
Markets
- (Park City, Utah, U.S.A.) — Simplified CDA with an
automated market maker (AMM) and a Banker that handles IPO issues
Cenimar
- (Loomis, California, U.S.A.) — Prediction markets settled by
the CIA World FactBook. — With a now mostly disabled automated
market
maker (AMM)
Ask Markets - (Greece, E.U.)
The Pop Sci
Prediction Exchange - (PPX) - (U.S.A.)
— Powered by HSX — Launched in June 2007.
The Sim
Exchange - (U.S.A.) — URL: theSimExchange
- Spelled: The simExchange — Wall Street-like play-money
prediction exchange on videogame sales.
Media Predict
- (New
York City, New York, U.S.A.) — Simon & Schuster — Founded
by Brent F. Stinski in 2006 — Powered by Inkling
Markets —
Older brand name: Media
Futures Exchange
—
Gexid - Global
Exchange for Information Derivatives - (Germany, E.U.)
InTrade - (Dublin, Ireland,
E.U.)
TradeSports - (The Netherlands Antilles)
HedgeStreet - (Delaware, U.S.A. & San Mateo,
California, U.S.A.) — Open to U.S. residents only.
Iowa
Electronic Markets - (IEM) - (Iowa City, Iowa,
U.S.A.)
- Iowa Health Prediction Market - (a.k.a. Influenza
Prediction Market, Flu Prediction Market) — Influenza
prediction markets + Avian influenza prediction markets — Play money with financial bonus.
BetFair - (Hammersmith, London,
England, United
Kingdom, E.U.)
Hollywood
Stock Exchange - (HSX) - (L.A., California,
U.S.A.) — URL: HSX —
HSX Movies - HSX Community
—
CDA with an automated market maker (AMM) that balances buy/sell orders
by generating
both buy and sell orders, which keep the market maker in balance as
well. — HSX
is a play-money prediction exchange with a
game, IPO-like interface. — Owned by Cantor Fitzgerald —
Founded in 1996 by Max Keiser and Michael Burns
ProTrade - (U.S.A.)
Sports Derivative Exchange - (?) - A kind of HSX for sports
YooPick
- (FaceBook
application) - (New York, U.S.A.) — by Yahoo! Research
Win Futures - (?) — A FaceBook application
American Civics Exchange - (U.S.A.) — Focused on politics.
Australian Knowledge eXchange - (Australia)
Celebdaq - Sportdaq
- (United
Kingdom, E.U.) — With an automated market maker (AMM)
Da Vinci Trade - (Costa Rica)
Exchange P - (?)
Hive Insight
-
(Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, U.S.A. & London, U.K., E.U.)
HirBroker - Hungary
IndiaPX - India
LinuxWorld
Prediction Markets - (U.S.A.)
MarMix -
(Information Systems Institute, U. of Lausanne's business school,
Lausanne U., Lausanne, Switzerland) — 2014 candidates
- Which city will be designated for the Winter Olympics
2014? — MarMix
- (for the Swiss students only) — More info
— Launched by Yves Pigneur and Cédric Gaspoz.
Meta-Markets
- (U.S.A.?) — By the MIT
HomePredict
- (U.S.A.) — Powered by Consensus Point's Foresight Server
NimaniX - (Israel)
— NimaniX in Hebrew
- Play money prediction markets
Political
Stockmarket - (Germany)
PredictMarkets - (New Zealand)
Public Gyan
- The Public Knowledge Exchange - (India) — URL: PublicGyan —
Multi-topic
exchange. — Launched in 2005 by Nitin Pai and Srijith Nair
Swarchy -
(Taipei, Taiwan) — Play-money prediction exchange
Stoccer -
(Germany, E.U.) — Soccer
Taiwan
Political Exchange - (Taiwan)
The Car Stock Exchange
- (CSX) - (U.S.A.) — Cars and trucks
The Gates Hillman Prediction Market - (?)
The Industry Standard
- (U.S.A.) — News + prediction markets
Turing Trade — About Turing test
WahlFieber -
(Germany) — Powered by ProKons
Washington Stock Exchange
- (WSX) - (Tennesse, U.S.A.) — URL: WashingtonSX -
Alternate URL: theWSX
— Uses Robin Hanson's Market Scoring Rules (a mix between CDA and
Scoring Rules), in one dimension — Uses an automated market maker (AMM)
— Powered by Consensus Point — Launched in 2006 by David Perry
and Ken
Kittlitz
WikiPredict - (??) —
eLab eXchange
- (U.S.A.) — Uses two non-trading forecasting techniques from
NewsFutures: Competitive Forecasting and Idea Pageant.
Play-Money Prediction Exchanges - Projects
Simon
Exchange
- (U.S.A.) — Law professor Tom Bell (and Robin
Hanson-follower) wants an idea futures exchange (trading science,
technology and public policy claims) to be named after a
deceased
libertarian economist.
Yootopia
- Yahoo!'s currency: Yootles
-
3. Miscellaneous
— (Other websites that might help figuring
odds of future events)
Odds
Comparators
Real-Money and Play-Money Prediction/Bet Registries
- Long
Bets - (California, U.S.A.) — Mid-term and
long-term bets (on business, science, society, and
technology issues)
organized by a foundation
List of Rated Sportsbooks, Bookmakers and Betting Exchanges
(a.k.a. Prediction Exchanges)
Retail Insurance / Hedging
- WeatherBill
- URL: WeatherBill,com - (U.S.A.) — Exempt Board of Trade that
has filed notice with the C.F.T.C. —
Deceased Websites of Interest — R.I.P.
- CME Economic
Derivatives — Auction format
- Economic
Derivatives
- (U.S.A.) — CME + ICAP + Longitude (previously with Goldman
Sachs) — These
financial instruments are traded through a
Universal Dutch Auction format —an
automated parimutuel technique. — OTC market (which limits
participants to eligible contract participants) excluded from
regulation by the CFTC.
- U.S.
Idea
Futures Exchange
- (USIFEX) - (U.S.A.) — a defunct play-money
prediction exchange
- Innovation
Futures
- (Massachusetts, U.S.A.) — by MIT's Technology
Review — a defunct play-money prediction exchange
- Yahoo! Buzz Game
- (Yahoo! Research Labs,
Pasadena, California,
U.S.A.)
- Global
Imbalances - (U.S.A.) — Macro-economic prediction markets —
By invitation only. Powered by NewsFutures. — CDA trading, it seems.
- Storage
Markets - (California, U.S.A.) — Launched in 2006 by John
Ives — Powered by HSX
- Politieke
AandelenMarkt - (PAM) - (Holland, E.U.) - Meaning "political
stock market" — Powered by NewsFutures - PAM @ NF
—
- Crowd IQ
- (N.Y.C., N.Y., U.S.A.) — URL: CrowdIQ — Launched
in 2006 by Chris Sun and Frank Conway — It has bellied up.
- BetBug
- (Jersey) — Bills
itself as "the Kazaa of betting". — It has bellied up.
- LCD TV
Futures —
Not an exchange, no trading. — The LCD TV Futures game is open to the
public. — Scoring Rules:
players' predictions are scored on 3 criteria: accuracy, duration, and
certainty. — Discontinued.
- Penn State
Idea Futures Market - (Penn State U., Pennsylvania,
U.S.A.) — For use by human resource
professionals — In collaboration with the Human Resource Institute — Launched
in February 2006 by David L. Passmore and Rose M. Baker — Powered by
NewsFutures
- UNC
Chapel Hill Futures Trading Application - (U. of
North Carolina, North Carolina, U.S.A.)
- Soccer
Exchange - (Rotterdam, Holland, E.U.) — Soccer
- NobelPreisBörse
- (Germany, E.U.) — Nobel Prize
predictions — Seems defunct.
- WallStreet
Sports - (Ireland, E.U.) — Defunct
play-money prediction exchange of the Trade
Exchange Network.
- BetX
- (Germany, E.U.) — in German?
- Jakarta
Foresight Exchange
- a.k.a. Asian Foresight Exchange -
(Indonesia) — in Indonesian
- Pandemic Flu Prediction
Market - (PFPF) - (U.S.A.) — Turkish Avian Flu Outbreak Market —
by Common Knowledge Markets —
Aiming at forecasting
H5N1 Virus outbreaks. — Private. —
Subsidized. — Uses Robin Hanson's Market Scoring Rules (a mix
between CDA and Scoring Rules), in one dimension
- FTD-Strategenbörse
- FTD-Strategy - (Germany, E.U.) — Financial Times
Germany/Deutschland + ECCE TERRAM
- Government
Futures - (U.S.A.) — Powered by Inkling — Uses Robin
Hanson's Market Scoring Rules (a mix between CDA and
Scoring Rules), in one dimension — Uses an automated market maker (AMM)
More Information
Disambiguation
- The Products
- traded bets; traded predictions; event
derivatives; event-driven
derivatives; event derivative contracts; information
derivatives; information derivative contracts.
- The Markets
- bet markets; betting
markets; event derivative
markets; information derivative markets; prediction
markets.
- The Exchanges
- bet exchanges; betting exchanges; event derivative exchanges; information
derivative exchanges; prediction exchanges.
- The Technology
- market-based technology; trading engine;
trading technology.
- Other Terms
- binaries; binary, European call
options; European binary options; binary event options; event
futures; event-driven futures; idea futures; information futures.
- Inappropriate Terms
- event
markets; idea markets; information markets; opinion
markets; predictive markets.
- Sub-Categories of Prediction Markets
- Decision markets are conditional
prediction markets intended (by some idealists) to be used as a
decision-making tool replacing human decision
makers;
- Decision-aid markets are conditional
prediction markets intended to be used as a decision-aid tool advising
human decision makers.
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