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Exchanges — Prediction exchanges (bet exchanges, betting exchanges, event derivative exchanges) organizing real-money and play-money prediction markets (bet markets, betting markets, event derivative markets) — Updated: 2008-07-03

  1. Real-Money Prediction Exchanges
  2. Play-Money Prediction Exchanges
  3. Miscellaneous



1. Real-Money Prediction Exchanges — (a.k.a. bet exchanges, betting exchanges, event derivative exchanges)



BetFair - (Hammersmith, London, England, United Kingdom, E.U.) — Alternate URLs: BetFair.co.uk & Flutter.com

TradeFair - (Hammersmith, London, England, United Kingdom, E.U.) — Binaries and Spreads


TradeBetX - TradeSports - (The Commonwealth of Dominica - Previously: The Netherlands Antilles - Previously: Dublin, Ireland, E.U.) — The probability of a future outcome expressed in percent is given by the last price. — Open to U.S. residents. — Launched in 2002 by John Delaney —

InTrade - (Dublin, Ireland, E.U.) — The probability of a future outcome expressed in percent is given by the last price. — Open to U.S. residents. —

Intrade Board of Trade - (Dublin, Ireland, E.U.) — Exempt Board of Trade (EBOT) that filed notice with the CFTC. -


MatchBook - (Antigua & Ireland, E.U.) — Open to U.S. residents. — Owned by WSEX.


World Sports Exchange - (WSEX) - (Antigua) — The "Long-Term Markets" make use of CDA. The other lines are typical of the betting operations of any sportsbook, and thus are not of interest to us. — Founded in 1996


HedgeStreet - (Delaware, U.S.A. & San Mateo, California, U.S.A.) — Open to U.S. residents only

Iowa Electronic Markets - (IEM) - (Iowa City, Iowa, U.S.A.) — Received two "no-action" letters from the CFTC. — IEM was launched in 1988 by prediction market co-inventors Robert Forsythe, Forrest Nelson, and George Neumann. — Research purpose; capped accounts. — Open to U.S. and international residents. —

Betdaq - (United Kingdom, E.U. & Ireland, E.U.) — Founded in 2001 — Owned by The Global Betting Exchange


Global Betting Exchange - (United Kingdom, E.U. & Ireland, E.U.) — Owned by Dermot Desmond


SpreadFair - (England, United Kingdom, E.U.) — The world's first spread-betting exchange. — Authorized and regulated by the U.K.'s Financial Services Authority — Launched in 2004/2005??? — Owned by Cantor Fitzgerald —


UBC Election Stock Market - (UBC-ESM) - (British Columbia, Canada) — Research purpose; capped accounts — Launched in 1996??


Bet 2 Give - (Maryland, U.S.A.) — Donations to charities. — Powered by NewsFutures.


Predictions Markets - (South Africa) — Prediction Markets .co.za — Launched in 2006 by Rory Mackay and Michael Franze.


Red Monitor - (Austria, E.U.) — URL: RedMonitor — in German — Red Monitor is subject to the Austrian Finanzmarktaufsicht supervision. Red Monitor’s non-CDA market design is original and patented. Scientific and private use is free.


The Penn State Prediction Markets - (Penn State U., Pennsylvania, U.S.A.) - 2007


Smarkets - (England, United Kingdom, E.U.) - 2008


Betsson - (United Kingdom???, E.U.) — Click on "exchange".


All Sports Market - (Costa Rica)


ToteExchange - ToteSport - (United Kingdom, E.U.) - UK Tote - Just a registered domain name, as for now.


INREEX - (International Real Estate Exchange) - (London, England, United Kingdom, E.U.) — Real-money house price prediction exchange — Launched in 2006 by Paul Rozenberg and Gene Sokolov


Other Betting Exchanges: eHorseX - iBetX - MyBet - BetOnBet - BackAndLay -


Other Real-Money Event Derivative Exchanges


CME Group - (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.) — A new entity representing the July 2007 merger of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).


US Futures Exchange - (USFE) - (U.S.A.) - USFE is a designated contract maker (DCM). — USFE uses The Clearing Corporation to provide its clearing services.


Chicago Board Options Exchange - (CBOE) - (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.) — A CBOT subsidiary — Regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) —


Chicago Futures Exchange - (CFE) - (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.) — Owned by Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) — Regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — Launched in 2004


Philadelphia Board of Trade - (PBOT) - (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.) — Soon to launch event-driven futures markets — All options and futures traded at PBOT are cleared at The Options Clearing Corporation. — Owned by Philadelphia Stock Exchange (PHLX) — Regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — Relaunched in 2005???


International Securities Exchange - (ISE) - (New York City, New York, U.S.A.) — Alternative markets — MidPoint Match platform, with Best Bid Offer (BBO) —  Owns Longitude — ISE is now owned by Deutsche Börse.


Nasdaq Options Exchange - (New York City, New York, U.S.A.) - 2007


Simili, Real-Money Prediction Exchanges


Poolitics - (New York City, New York, U.S.A.) — Not CDA; Pool betting. — Blog interface (Drupal) — Launched in 2004 by Brett Michaelson.




2. Play-Money Prediction Exchanges — (a.k.a. virtual prediction exchanges, fantasy prediction exchanges, virtual betting exchanges, fantasy betting exchanges)



BetFair - (Hammersmith, London, England, United Kingdom, E.U.)

TradeSports - (The Netherlands Antilles)
InTrade - (Dublin, Ireland, E.U.)

HedgeStreet - (Delaware, U.S.A. & San Mateo, California, U.S.A.) — Open to U.S. residents only.
Iowa Electronic Markets - (IEM) - (Iowa City, Iowa, U.S.A.)
HubDub - (Scotland, United Kingdom, E.U.) — Play-money prediction exchange & News aggregator — Founded in end of 2007 by Nigel Eccles

NewsFutures - (Maryland, U.S.A. & France, E.U.) — French News Exchange - Hungarian — Founded in 2000 by Emile Servan-Shreiber and Maurice Balick — Godfathered by Robin Hanson (a prediction market co-inventor)
Foresight Exchange - (FX, FSX) - (Alberta, Canada) — URL: IdeoSphere - Alternate URL: Idea Futures — Launched in 1994 by Ken Kittlitz, Sean Morgan, Mark James, Greg James, David McFadzean and Duane Hewitt — Godfathered by Robin Hanson (a prediction market co-inventor)

Inkling - (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.) — URL: Inkling Markets — Uses Robin Hanson's Market Scoring Rules (a mix between CDA and Scoring Rules), in one dimension — Uses an automated market maker (AMM) — Launched in 2006 by Adam Siegel, Jim Richmond and Nathan Kontny

Reality Markets - (Park City, Utah, U.S.A.) — Simplified CDA with an automated market maker (AMM) and a Banker that handles IPO issues


Cenimar - (Loomis, California, U.S.A.) — Prediction markets settled by the CIA World FactBook. — With a now mostly disabled automated market maker (AMM)


YooPick - (FaceBook application) — by Yahoo! Research


Hollywood Stock Exchange - (HSX) - (L.A., California, U.S.A.) — URL: HSX — HSX Movies - HSX Community — CDA with an automated market maker (AMM) that balances buy/sell orders by generating both buy and sell orders, which keep the market maker in balance as well. — HSX is a play-money prediction exchange with a game, IPO-like interface. — Owned by Cantor Fitzgerald — Founded in 1996 by Max Keiser and Michael Burns


The Pop Sci Prediction Exchange - (PPX) - (U.S.A.) — Powered by HSX — Launched in June 2007.


The Sim Exchange - (U.S.A.) — URL: theSimExchange - Spelled: The simExchange — Wall Street-like play-money prediction exchange on videogame sales.


Media Predict - (New York City, New York, U.S.A.) — Simon & Schuster — Founded by Brent F. Stinski in 2006 — Powered by Inkling Markets — Older brand name: Media Futures Exchange —


The Industry Standard - (U.S.A.) — News + prediction markets


The Car Stock Exchange - (CSX) - (U.S.A.) — Cars and trucks


Yahoo! Buzz Game - (Yahoo! Research Labs, Pasadena, California, U.S.A.) — Launched in 2005 by David Pennock et al. — Exchange based on David Pennock's invention, the dynamic pari-mutuel market

Washington Stock Exchange - (WSX) - (Tennesse, U.S.A.) — URL: WashingtonSX - Alternate URL: theWSX — Uses Robin Hanson's Market Scoring Rules (a mix between CDA and Scoring Rules), in one dimension — Uses an automated market maker (AMM) — Powered by Consensus Point — Launched in 2006 by David Perry and Ken Kittlitz



Other Play-Money Prediction Exchanges


BBC - Celebdaq & BBC - Sportdaq - (United Kingdom, E.U.) — With an automated market maker (AMM)

eLab eXchange - (U.S.A.) — Uses two non-trading forecasting techniques from NewsFutures: Competitive Forecasting and Idea Pageant.

Financial Next - (U.S.A.??) — Uses Inkling Markets technology — Uses Robin Hanson's Market Scoring Rules (a mix between CDA and Scoring Rules), in one dimension — Uses an automated market maker (AMM)

FTD-Strategenbörse - FTD-Strategy - (Germany, E.U.) — Financial Times Germany/Deutschland + ECCE TERRAM

Gexid - Global Exchange for Information Derivatives - (Germany, E.U.)

Government Futures - (U.S.A.) — Powered by Inkling — Uses Robin Hanson's Market Scoring Rules (a mix between CDA and Scoring Rules), in one dimension — Uses an automated market maker (AMM)

Hive Insight / Rimdex - (Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, U.S.A. & London, U.K., E.U.)

Inreex - (International Real Estate Exchange) - (London, England, United Kingdom, E.U.) — Play-money house price prediction exchange — Launched in 2006 by Paul Rozenberg and Gene Sokolov

LinuxWorld Prediction Markets - (U.S.A.)

MarMix - (Information Systems Institute, U. of Lausanne's business school, Lausanne U., Lausanne, Switzerland) — 2014 candidates - Which city will be designated for the Winter Olympics 2014? — MarMix - (for the Swiss students only) — More info — Launched by Yves Pigneur and Cédric Gaspoz.

Meta-Markets - (U.S.A.?) — By the MIT

My Currency - (U.S.A.) — Powered by Consensus Point's Foresight Server

NimaniX - (Israel) — NimaniX in Hebrew - Play money prediction markets

PharmaDAQ - (U.S.A.??) — Pharmaceutical industry prediction exchange (betting exchange). Goal: forecasting the future size of each drug market segment.

Political Event Market - (U. of Virginia, Virginia, U.S.A.) — Founded by Charles Holt — Potentially, this exchange can also be used with real money.

Project Destiny - (E.U.) — Technology prediction exchange where only employees of the France Telecom Group can trade.

Prediction Xchange - (Casual Observer) - (U.S.A.) — Uses Robin Hanson's Market Scoring Rules (a mix between CDA and Scoring Rules), in one dimension — Uses an automated market maker (AMM) — Powered by Inkling —

Political Stockmarket - (Germany)

Public Gyan - The Public Knowledge Exchange - (India) — URL: PublicGyan — Multi-topic exchange. — Launched in 2005 by Nitin Pai and Srijith Nair

Qmarkets - (Israel)

Swarchy - (Taipei, Taiwan) — Play-money prediction exchange

Serotonin Prediction Markets - (Toronto, Ontario, Canada)

Stoccer - (Germany, E.U.) — Soccer

TechForX - (Germany, E.U.)

Taiwan Political Exchange - (Taiwan)

The Prediction Game - (Predaq) - (??) — Launched in 2006 by Haydon Rouse

Technology Futures Markets - (Germany, E.U.) — Alternate URL: tfMarkets — A stock market game to predict the Future of Technology — A cooperation of Austrian Electronic Markets & Chair of Information Services and Electronic Markets

We Are Smarter Than Me - (U.S.A.) - Predicting the success of a wiki book. — Powered by Consensus Point

WahlFieber - (Germany) — Powered by ProKons



Play-Money Prediction Exchanges - Projects


Simon Exchange - (U.S.A.) — Law professor Tom Bell (and Robin Hanson-follower) wants an idea futures exchange (trading science, technology and public policy claims) to be named after a deceased libertarian economist.




3. Miscellaneous — (Other websites that might help figuring odds of future events)



Odds Comparators

Real-Money and Play-Money Prediction/Bet Registries

List of Rated Sportsbooks, Bookmakers and Betting Exchanges (a.k.a. Prediction Exchanges)