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Cases — Business cases and case studies on enterprise prediction markets (corporate prediction markets, internal prediction markets) — Updated: 2008-07-17

Forrester

Prediction Markets: Wisdom Of The Crowd Comes To The Enterprise. - (MO mirror soon) - 2007-07-14

Google - (U.S.A.)

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google - (PDF file - PDF file) - (MO excerpts) - by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz - 2008-01-06

More on Google Prediction Markets - [internal prediction markets @ Google] - by Patri Friedman - 2005-09-22

The trickiest problem was how to measure predictiveness. In our system, if an event has a price of ten cents, that means it should be 10% likely. This is because each outcome is worth 1 Gooble (play money dollar) if it comes true, but 0 otherwise. So if an outcome has a 10% chance of happening, its price should be ten cents. But in the end, it will either happen or not - so how to evaluate the accuracy of that 10%? We came up with the idea of taking all the predictions (every average weekly price for each outcome) and bucketing them, ie 0-10%, 10%-20%, etc. Even though a single data point tells us nothing, if we collect 100 data points that we say should happen 10%-20% of the time, on average about 10-20 of them should happen.

Putting crowd wisdom to work - [internal prediction markets @ Google | See also the NYT article.] - by Bo Cowgill - 2005-09-21

The markets were designed to forecast product launch dates, new office openings, and many other things of strategic importance to Google. So far, more than a thousand Googlers have bid on 146 events in 43 different subject areas (no payment is required to play).
So our prices really do represent probabilities - very exciting!
Our search engine works well because it aggregates information dispersed across the web, and our internal predictive markets are based on the same principle: Googlers from across the company contribute knowledge and opinions which are aggregated into a forecast by the market.

McKinsey - (U.S.A.)

The Promise Of Prediction Markets - 2008-04-XX

Intel Corporation - (U.S.A.)

The Spectrum of Risk Management in a Technology Company - Using Forecasting Markets to Manage Demand Risk - (PDF) - (Excerpts on Midas Oracle) - by Intel Corporation's Jay W. Hopman - 2007-05-16

General Electric - (U.S.A.)

The imagination market - by Christina Ann LaComb, Janet Arlie Barnett and Qimei Pan - 2007-03-10

Information markets are typically used as prediction tools, aggregating opinions about the likelihood of future events, or as preference indicators, identifying participants’ product preferences. However, the basic information market concept is more widely applicable. In our experiment, we utilized information markets within the domains of idea generation and group decisioning. Participants were allowed to propose ideas regarding potential technology research areas; these ideas were represented as securities on a virtual financial market. Participants were able to trade shares of technology ideas over the course of 3 weeks, resulting in the market identifying the “best” idea as the highest priced security. Our findings suggest that information markets for idea generation result in more ideas and more participants than traditional idea generation techniques; however, using markets to rank ideas may be no better than other methods of idea ranking. Additional benefits include providing immediate feedback, allowing visibility of all ideas to all contributors, and being a fun mechanism for consensus building.

What's Your Idea Worth? - (via David Perry of Consensus Point, GE's contractor for the prediction market software) - [internal prediction markets @ GE | See also the WSJ article.] - 2006-06-21

Last summer, we ran our first "Imagination Market". We asked the 150 members of the Computing and Decision Sciences group to participate in a market to identify breakthrough technology research areas that we should be investigating. Since we knew that innovative ideas could come from anywhere, we asked lab managers, project leaders, individual contributors, contractors, summer interns, and other support staff to join in.
The highest price security at the end of the market, based on the volume-weighted average price over the last 5 days of traded, was considered the "best" idea. The individual who proposed the idea was awarded research funding to more fully explore the research topic.
I can tell you that the idea was in the area of artificial intelligence.

MicroSoft - (U.S.A.)

Case: MicroSoft’s internal prediction markets - 2007-01-23

Corning - (U.S.A.)

Corning's Predictions - [Corning's LCD TV prediction markets are been discontinued, according to a Chris Hibbert's comment on this blog post.] - by Alex Kirtland - 2006-07-26

Pharmaceutical Industry - (World)

Can the Many forecast better than the Few in the pharmaceutical industry? - (PDF) - by Joseph Miles - 2007-02-XX

The Institute For The Future - (U.S.A.)

The Experience of Prediction Markets - by Jessica Margolin - 2007-09-12

More Information

"Business Cases & Case Studies" post category at the Midas Oracle blog

Disambiguation

The Products
- traded bets; traded predictions; event derivatives; event-driven derivatives; event derivative contracts; information derivatives; information derivative contracts.
The Markets
- bet markets; betting markets; event derivative markets; information derivative markets; prediction markets.
The Exchanges
- bet exchanges; betting exchanges; event derivative exchanges; information derivative exchanges; prediction exchanges.
The Technology
- market-based technology; trading engine; trading technology.
Other Terms
- binaries; binary, European call options; European binary options; binary event options; event futures; event-driven futures; idea futures; information futures.
Inappropriate Terms
- event markets; idea markets; information markets; opinion markets; predictive markets.
Sub-Categories of Prediction Markets
1. Decision markets are conditional prediction markets intended (by some idealists) to be used as a decision-making tool replacing human decision makers;
2. Decision-aid markets are conditional prediction markets intended to be used as a decision-aid tool advising human decision makers.

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