CFM = Prediction Markets — Since 2004
Analysts —
Associations —
Blog —
Blogs —
Books —
Cases —
Commons —
Consultants —
Designs —
Exchanges —
Explainers —
Forums —
Governments —
Groups —
Journals —
Labs —
Markets —
Media —
Meetings —
News —
Opinion —
Presentations —
Research —
Resources —
Scholars —
Search —
Software —
Think
Tanks —
Universes —
Vortals —
— Site Feed —
CFM
@ Google Reader —
About Chris Masse — CFM's
Information Technology — Google Reader — Google E-Mail — Google Analytics —
Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events
by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when
they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools
that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in,
garbage out... Intelligence in, intelligence out...
A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event,
such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the
election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is
$60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance
of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be
interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e.,
its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means
that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 60 times
out of 100, the favored outcome will occur; and 40 times out of 100, the
unfavored outcome will occur.
Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.
Site Search
Google
Advanced Search of the CFM site
Google Search: — "event
derivatives" — "event
derivative" — "event-driven
derivatives" — "event-driven
derivative" — "event
futures" — "event-driven
futures" — "idea
futures" — "prediction
markets" — "prediction
market" — "betting
markets" — "betting
market" — "prediction
exchanges" — "prediction
exchange" — "betting
exchanges" — "betting
exchange" — "decision
markets" — "decision-aid
markets" — "information aggregation mechanisms" — "wisdom
of crowds" — "collective
intelligence" — forecasting
—
THE
MIDAS ORACLE NETWORK
1. Chris
F. Masse. COM = Vortal To Prediction Markets
2. Midas
Oracle .ORG = Prediction Markets For All
3. Midas
Oracle .NET = Prediction Markets For Enterprises
4. Midas
Oracle .COM = Prediction Markets For People
Aiming at Predicting the Future — via Event
Derivatives (Event Futures), Prediction Markets
(Event Derivative Markets), Prediction Exchanges (Event Derivative Exchanges)
1. Chris
F. Masse .COM = Vertical portal on event
derivatives (event futures), prediction markets (event derivative markets) and
prediction exchanges (event derivative exchanges) — Site Feed — CFM
@ Google Reader — Google
Advanced Search of the CFM site — Yahoo! Search of the CFM site —
Google
PageRank: 5/10 —
2. Midas
Oracle .ORG = Group blog
on event derivatives (event futures), prediction markets (event derivative
markets) and prediction exchanges (event derivative exchanges) — Site Feed — MO.ORG
@ Google Reader — Google
Advanced Search of the Midas Oracle .ORG
blog — Yahoo! Search of the Midas Oracle .ORG
blog — Google
PageRank: 5/10 — Midas
Oracle Statistics — Kudos
—
3. Midas
Oracle .NET = Group blog
on event derivatives (event futures), prediction markets
(event derivative
markets) and prediction exchanges (event derivative exchanges) — Site Feed — MO.NET
@ Google Reader — Google
Advanced Search of the Midas Oracle .NET
blog — Yahoo! Search of the Midas Oracle .NET
blog — Google
PageRank: 4/10 — Midas
Oracle Statistics — Kudos
—
4. Midas
Oracle .COM = Group blog
on event derivatives (event futures), prediction markets (event derivative
markets) and prediction exchanges (event derivative exchanges) — Site Feed —
MO.COM
@ Google Reader — Google
Advanced Search of the Midas Oracle .COM
blog — Yahoo! Search of the Midas Oracle .COM
blog — Google
PageRank: 4/10 — Midas
Oracle Statistics — Kudos
—
About Chris Masse
Contact Chris Masse
- Phone
- +33 4-9365-4911
- 04-9365-4911
- E-Mail Adresses
- cfm |-at-| midasoracle |.|-com-|
- chrisfmasse |-at-| gmail |.|-com-|
- chrisfmasse |-at-| yahoo |.|-com-|
- Web-Based E-Mail Form
- Instant Messaging
- Web Adresses
- Global Headquarter
Chris F. Masse
Panorama B, Green Side
305, avenue Saint Philippe
Les Templiers, Sophia–Antipolis
06410 Biot, Alpes-Maritimes
France,
European
Union
Disambiguation
- The Products
- event derivatives; event-driven
derivatives; event
futures; event-driven futures; idea futures; information futures; traded
bets; traded predictions;
- event derivative contracts; event derivatives
contracts; event futures contracts.
- The Markets
- bet markets; betting
markets; event derivative markets;
event derivatives markets; event futures markets; prediction markets.
- The Exchanges
- bet exchanges; betting exchanges; event derivative
exchanges; event derivatives
exchanges; event futures
exchanges; information futures
exchanges; idea futures exchanges; peer-to-peer betting exchanges; P2P
betting
exchanges; prediction exchanges.
- Other Terms
- binaries; binary, European call
options; European binary options; binary event options;
- market-generated
predictions; predictive market-based technology.
- Inappropriate Terms
- event
markets; idea markets; information markets; opinion
markets; predictive markets.
- Sub-Categories of Prediction Markets
- Decision markets are conditional
prediction markets intended (by some idealists) to be used as a
decision-making tool replacing human decision
makers;
- Decision-aid markets are conditional
prediction markets intended to be used as a decision-aid tool advising
human decision makers.
More
on my Sites
Terms
of Use - (including Privacy Policy)
Copyright by Chris
F. Masse. All rights reserved.
URL of this webpage: http://www.chrisfmasse.com/