CFM = Prediction Markets

CFM = Prediction Markets — Since 2004

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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out... Intelligence in, intelligence out...

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 60 times out of 100, the favored outcome will occur; and 40 times out of 100, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

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Google Search: — "event derivatives" — "event derivative" — "event-driven derivatives" — "event-driven derivative" — "event futures" — "event-driven futures" — "idea futures" — "prediction markets" — "prediction market" — "betting markets" — "betting market" — "prediction exchanges" — "prediction exchange" — "betting exchanges" — "betting exchange" — "decision markets" — "decision-aid markets" — "information aggregation mechanisms" — "wisdom of crowds" — "collective intelligence" — forecasting —

THE MIDAS ORACLE NETWORK

1. Chris F. Masse. COM = Vortal To Prediction Markets

2. Midas Oracle .ORG = Prediction Markets For All

3. Midas Oracle .NET = Prediction Markets For Enterprises

4. Midas Oracle .COM = Prediction Markets For People

Aiming at Predicting the Future — via Event Derivatives (Event Futures), Prediction Markets (Event Derivative Markets), Prediction Exchanges (Event Derivative Exchanges)

1. Chris F. Masse .COM = Vertical portal on event derivatives (event futures), prediction markets (event derivative markets) and prediction exchanges (event derivative exchanges) — Site Feed — CFM @ Google Reader — Google Advanced Search of the CFM site — Yahoo! Search of the CFM site — Google PageRank: 5/10 —

2. Midas Oracle .ORG = Group blog on event derivatives (event futures), prediction markets (event derivative markets) and prediction exchanges (event derivative exchanges) — Site Feed — MO.ORG @ Google Reader — Google Advanced Search of the Midas Oracle .ORG blog — Yahoo! Search of the Midas Oracle .ORG blog — Google PageRank: 5/10 — Midas Oracle Statistics — Kudos —

3. Midas Oracle .NET = Group blog on event derivatives (event futures), prediction markets (event derivative markets) and prediction exchanges (event derivative exchanges) — Site Feed — MO.NET @ Google Reader — Google Advanced Search of the Midas Oracle .NET blog — Yahoo! Search of the Midas Oracle .NET blog — Google PageRank: 4/10 — Midas Oracle Statistics — Kudos —

4. Midas Oracle .COM = Group blog on event derivatives (event futures), prediction markets (event derivative markets) and prediction exchanges (event derivative exchanges) — Site Feed — MO.COM @ Google Reader — Google Advanced Search of the Midas Oracle .COM blog — Yahoo! Search of the Midas Oracle .COM blog — Google PageRank: 4/10 — Midas Oracle Statistics — Kudos —

About Chris Masse

Contact Chris Masse

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Global Headquarter
Chris F. Masse
Panorama B, Green Side
305, avenue Saint Philippe
Les Templiers, Sophia–Antipolis
06410 Biot, Alpes-Maritimes
France, European Union

Disambiguation

The Products
- event derivatives; event-driven derivatives; event futures; event-driven futures; idea futures; information futures; traded bets; traded predictions;
- event derivative contracts; event derivatives contracts; event futures contracts.
The Markets
- bet markets; betting markets; event derivative markets; event derivatives markets; event futures markets; prediction markets.
The Exchanges
- bet exchanges; betting exchanges; event derivative exchanges; event derivatives exchanges; event futures exchanges; information futures exchanges; idea futures exchanges; peer-to-peer betting exchanges; P2P betting exchanges; prediction exchanges.
Other Terms
- binaries; binary, European call options; European binary options; binary event options;
- market-generated predictions; predictive market-based technology.
Inappropriate Terms
- event markets; idea markets; information markets; opinion markets; predictive markets.
Sub-Categories of Prediction Markets
1. Decision markets are conditional prediction markets intended (by some idealists) to be used as a decision-making tool replacing human decision makers;
2. Decision-aid markets are conditional prediction markets intended to be used as a decision-aid tool advising human decision makers.

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